2014 - The "Next Global Crisis"?
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June 18, 2010

2014 - The "Next Global Crisis"?

3021241003_24c95f7f08 A cataclysmic "Great Event" is approaching which will occur in or around the year 2014 and determine the course of the rest of the 21st century, according to a startling new thesis by University of Cambridge academic, Professor Nicholas Boyle. His study brings a lifetime's research in fields including politics, economics, philosophy, theology and literature to bear on the state of global politics and the causes, consequences and wider meaning of the present financial crisis.

In Boyle's new book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis, he warns that the economic collapse of 2007-2008 could mark only the start of a wider breakdown in international relations, and predicts that by the middle of the decade just dawned, the United States will find itself the key player in a series of make-or-break decisions about the future of the world.

The choices the US makes will either condemn us to a century of violence and poverty, or usher in a new age of global co-operation, the book asserts. It adds, however, that the more peaceful alternative will only be realized if the international community can accept that nation states are no longer strong enough to deal with the world's problems and construct an effective system of global governance instead.

"We are approaching a moment of decision, when the deeper issues that have begun to make themselves felt in recent years can no longer be postponed," Professor Boyle said. "By 2014, our legacy to the 21st century is likely to have been determined, for better or for worse."

Those issues represent some of the major flashpoints of world politics; among them economic management, the emergence of new powers such as China and India, and the need for international co-operation on climate change.

While these are all 21st century problems, the book suggests that the timing is not a new phenomenon. Professor Boyle argues that the themes which characterised world politics in each of the last five centuries became apparent over the course of their second decade. In 1914, the result was a catastrophic war which heralded decades of conflict and tension. By contrast, in 1815, the Congress of Vienna ensured almost 100 years of relative peace. 

Similarly, the study says, the middle of this decade appears set to witness the convergence of the most pressing concerns of the present day. It draws parallels between Germany's rise circa 1910 and China, which is similarly squaring up to the modern era's leading superpower, the US. America will have had to come to terms with the rising powers of Asia as they approach parity by 2014. Meanwhile, the effects of a prolonged economic downturn could restore an aggressive, Bush-like figure to the US Presidency.

"Everything, in the end, may depend on whether America can react more imaginatively to a decline in relative economic power - to sharing with others both the world's resources and its own standards of living - than, sadly, Britain was able to do in the years before 1914," Professor Boyle writes.

At the heart of that response, he says, should be the realisation that a model of global governance is needed to bring politics into line with the global economy. The book argues that the recent banking collapse happened because no such form of regulation existed to control international finance.

To strengthen existing international structures, one measure the author calls for is a Tobin-style tax on banking to provide the revenue needed to guarantee financial stability and support other "global goods", such as the Millennium Development Goals and the dramatic changes needed to fight climate change.

The book adds, however, that global governance can only occur if there is an accompanying change in the philosophy that underpins international relations. Professor Boyle describes sovereign nation-states as a "20th century experiment that failed" but warns that they are also in many ways an American invention which the US needs to accept as out-dated and no longer fit for purpose.

With the exception of the 20th century, Boyle contends that the model which has guided world progress throughout history has been that of Empire. Similarly, the book argues that in the 21st century, it is a network of global organisations - from multinationals to the still only partly-acknowledged "Empire" of America - that determine many aspects of our lives.

"It is a profoundly hopeful sign that we begin the 21st century with very many more international and intergovernmental organisations than we had at the start of the 20th," Boyle says. What longer history suggests, he adds, is the need for a system of "imperial of global regulation, if the 21st century is to be one of relative peace.

"The only conceivably peaceful route to that goal is through a continuation of the pax Americana," he writes. "But both the world's understanding of America, and America's understanding of itself, will have to change fundamentally for that goal to be achieved."

Casey Kazan via University of Cambridge

Comments

Guess we are in for a century of poverty and violence...

Right on J kaye.

When a person concludes that a world empire is needed maintain relative peace, I get a little weary of the future.

should be wary

New Boogy man is in people, stand up and bow.
So as we know now most of the wars was planned and designed (as todays crisis)so following wars (hope there will be none) will be also designed(if not already). And he is openly talking about new world order as well. What a good and honest man, trying to save our little lifes (and make a few bucks while at it)
What i would recommend to Mr. Boyle though, is to go and perform self coitus!

I read this same exact article on physorg.com are sure this wasnt a copy and paste job??

Everything on this site is a copy and paste job. You can type in the names of the articles on google and get a hundred matching results, lol.

For once the daily galaxy is right about something: it's only going to get worse if we don't stop wasting money and regulating businesses. I wouldn't predict it down to 2014, but at least sometime in the next decade we're going to slip into another great depression (don't take my word for it, ask Ann Coulter, Newt Gingrich, the Fox News political analysts, and any stockbroker you happen to meet. They'll all agree.) however, it's not too late to prevent a depression. All we have to do is have a mass spending freeze on the federal level for about 4 years. Only spend what we absolutely have to to maintain schools and roads and pay cops and so forth, but don't give any more of Pelosi's and Reid's sweetheart deals to certain districts and businesses. Oh, and we also need to get half the democrats voted out of congress before we have any chance of stopping spending.

The freeze should only need 4 years or so before the economy stabilizes and starts rising, then we can slowly work our way back into spending on government projects and such (though not nearly as much as we have been, because that would cause another recession/depression and then we'd have to freeze spending all over again.)

then again this is just the humble opinion of a 17 year old high school student. I wrote a whole essay on one of these comment pages last week about how stupid the adults in charge of things are in this generation. Change is coming this time. Not the change Obama promised, but change that will help the country rather than harm it more. Think about it: how can you stimulate the economy... by spending taxpayer's money? that just means they have less money to spend on their own, and thus they have less means to stimulate small businesses and retailers, which in turn stimulate the large businesses, which in turn provides higher salaries to the working middle-classman, which in turn stimulates small businesses even more... I could go on all day

lol @ alex

Get rid of half the democrats, and we'll be back to the Bush years of nationalism, protectionism, suspicion of other countries and placing American interests ahead of the more urgent needs of humanity (e.g. Mitigating climate change)

These are the very things that Prof. Boyle says will condemn us to an age of violence and poverty.

I agree with you about one thing: The Prof. is right.

Sincerely hope that none of this comes to pass. If we do get a new world order, then I'll be right alongside the anarchists chucking grenades at the government. Allowing personal and economic freedom to blossom is the only way we'll get through this with any of our liberties intact.

> We are doomed! The tea-party and the Republican party will all drag us to Hell with them.

too many people. one billion is earths max capacity. there is no other solution.

I think its not good to say 2014 will be the next Global crisis..We don't know our future and we can't predict that..It's a serious future problem and I'm not happy to hear that :(

This guy is talking out of his ass. Did he really say "By contrast, in 1815, the Congress of Vienna ensured almost 100 years of relative peace." The 19th century was a period in history marked by the collapse of the Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese, Holy Roman and Mughal empires. (Wikipedia) I am no history buff but I am pretty sure those empires did not just bow away quietly.
I am sick of the end-timers trying to make a buck by scaring us into believing their delusions.
Viva Pax American, the new world order. We will bring world peace or die trying.

That's what im thinking. Too many people on this earth and most of them are getting dumber and dumber, and our morals are not going in the right direction in my oppinion. I just read that teachers, TEACHERS in Florida were the ones cheating their kids into passing! WTF! What is this world coming too? I was thinking that this world is getting too over-populated with an aggressive species. and something has to control the population. Just like mice, some disease, or global epidemic is gonna hit and wipe out a couple million{s} or even billion of us. Who knows when, but it seems that people are fed up with us Americans for some reason.

I've been debating this point for years now. This guy knows what he's talking about.

In the 21st century, the world has become too small to justify individual nation states.

The major threats to humanity are:
- Ourselves (Biological warfare, nuclear warfare, terrorism)
- The loss of biodiversity
- The rise of new global powers (China etc.)
- Global economic crises (Due to excessive corporate greed, financial risk taking, peak oil etc.)
- Run-away climate change
- Asteroid impacts

None of these threats can be faced effectively with individual nation states, having only their own interests at heart.

Sooner or later we are going to be faced with decisions that either make or break us as a species, the most imminent of these will be in this century.

There are positive arguments for greater global connectedness as well.

We could never have afforded to explore space or land on the moon without organisations funded by nations that expand extremely large territories (NASA, ESA etc.)

Europe has had peace and has prospered ever since the formation of the EU.

The US has had peace and has prospered ever since the formation of its federal government.

Those countries that have agreed to cooperate have been the greatest contributors to human progress in this last century.

The best science experiments we can build today cost so much that they can only be done with international, coordinated effort and funding (LHC etc.)

If we ever want to afford to escape this planet and colonize outer space we will need international coordinated effort and funding.

Hmm...I don't know. Call me crazy, but I just don't think asking Fox "News" pundits about anything would help matters at all (as someone earlier was suggesting). The Right wing is nuts (and only represents billionaires); members of the Democratic Party are not nuts (by and large), but they are definitely bought and paid for by the same billionaires. The only hope is to adopt Instant-Runoff Voting (IRV). This would finally allow other parties besides Democrats and Republicans to win elections. As it stands now, that is virtually impossible. This would allow Social Democrats and real Progressive candidates (as well as Libertarians, Tea Party members, Socialists, Greens, etc.) to finally be accepted into mainstream politics.

But don't forget those 'new' viruses unlocked in Antarctica!

Doomed.

"Everything...may depend on whether America can react ... to sharing with others both the world's resources and its own standards of living"

Consider how we treat our own poor. It's a lost cause.

Note to redhorizons: The "dumbing down" is a solidly American phenomenon, not embraced by the rest of the world.

In order to celebrate the new era, the inherent BASIC HUMAN FREEDOM of choosing friends, of expressing one´s real feelings, regardless of minorities´characteristics, SHOULD BE RETURNED. Opening the doors of America to the worlds´poorest of the mostly ignorant and resentful poor, is suicidal and only increases poverty in the U.S.

Shouldn't we consider in every nation major changes in the traditional ways of doing things, a fundamental restructuring of economic political social and religious institutions. We've reached a point where there can be no more special interests or special cases, nuclear arms threaten every person on the Earth. Fundamental changes in society are sometimes labelled impractical or contrary to human nature, as if nuclear war were practical or as if there's only one human nature. But fundamental changes can clearly be made, we're surrounded by them. In the last two centuries abject slavery which was with us for thousands of years has almost entirely been eliminated in a stirring worldwide revolution. Women, systematically mistreated for millennia are gradually gaining the political and economic power traditionally denied them and some wars of aggression have recently been stopped or curtailed because of a revulsion felt by the people in the aggressor nations. The old appeals to racial sexual religious chauvinism and to rabid nationalist fervor are beginning not to work. A new consciousness is developing which sees the earth as a single organism and recognizes that an organism at war with itself is doomed. We are one planet. One of the great revelations of the age of space exploration is the image of the earth finite and lonely, somehow vulnerable, bearing the entire human species through the oceans of space and time.

Energy Policy Trumpet

So, with our “lens” in hand, a firm grasp on the as-is, the dc economic bus, which is a series circuit shorted recursively into a black hole, we need to contain the gravity, to catch the nucleus, by balancing it with the analog web, igniting an economic sun across the gap on economic breakdown voltage …

with the compiler A/D directly feeding the DC bus and the compiler D/A randomly reassembling the AC wave, beyond the knowledge of the DC bus, to provide a positive feedback loop between planetary ecology & human development, measuring effective energy dissipation by increasing planetary diversity …

balancing GDP with (I – C) / G, on the margin, I being small business enterprises that operate beyond the family law, banking & credit, HR surveillance system, among independent, self-sustaining, global virtual communities, trading surplus, to build and assemble the components …

and next month, we begin to pull the false-work out, while the digital economy builds more bridges to nowhere in Columbus, moves sand from one part of the Gulf to another, only to watch it return, and tries to figure out the relationship between those cracks in the mantle, the build-up in the sun, and increasing weather variability …

to ignite the space between the looking glass, leaving the two faces of gravity to bask in the mythology of its own reflection, listening to the HAARP from the rocks below.

So far, we have largely been discussing the D/A learning design. The A/D knowledge side remains largely the same: complex command source, simple series execution tree, simple intermediate instruction set, local & loop optimization, and elimination of redundancy to create the lens side, to lock the rotor into the stator; however, there is a symbiotic relationship between the A/D and D/A to consider, to enable the virtual rotor and stators across the parallel parse.

The positive feedback loop (open) balances the negative feedback loop (closed), within another feedback loop, building up the symbiotic relativity circuit of energy dissipation. The knowledge side arbitrarily assigns system errors to individuals, creating the avalanche field. The learning side learns to set the gap to identify individual errors and reassign them within the system, promoting circulation in a process of deduction to create the multi-dimensional AC wave.

The difference between quantum development and pulse wave modification is the former creates the wave in random order, in multiple dimensions, learning to anticipate the next orbit, with adaptive practice in the parallel structure. It’s like the calculus of approximating an unknown curve, learning from parallel false assumptions on the curve, while developing an instinct for confidence in the unknowable, recognition, what is and what is not part of the curve.

There is no solution; there is only participation and non-participation, and that depends on perspective, location relative to the looking glass, which is a function of mobility, which has many forms, within its own associated series & parallel feedback loops.

Analog Ignition

There is sufficient diffusion to ignite the analog reaction now, and pull out of the digital free fall smoothly, but the second half of the pressure stroke has reached top dead center and, short of fully restored economic circulation, the pressure alone will ignite the chamber, resulting in massive dislocation within the chamber.

The problem of course is the mythology of agency direction. As the Gulf demonstrates, corporate and government agency may only accelerate or decelerate, in the same direction. Agency has no steering wheel. All it has is a social entitlement system to promote conformity on the margin, to leverage the natural propensity of lagging individuals to deny personal responsibility, and grow agency, at the cost of economic slave subsidiaries, in a ponzi scheme.

State, federal, and multi-national behavior is a downstream outcome. Small businesses chose to participate in the global HR surveillance certification system, and communities chose to participate in the family law system, resulting in social inertia, leveraged by increasing peer pressure on the margin. The energy stored in that mass, its downhill momentum alone, ensures the crash, and the binding mythology holding it all together has yet to be challenged, because it is not in the immediate interest of those involved to do so. By the time it is …

The law follows behavior, informally at first, and then formally. Once it’s formal, the rotor is locked into the stator, the belts are removed, and the motor is a runaway, which can only have one possible outcome. Constitutions are designed to eliminate the option of permanent government, and should that occur, to blow up the entire system. Congress ensured the current outcome when it made itself permanent, but it could not have done so without extensive participation, either by commission or omission.

Sooner or later, agency always tries to short the kernel, and blows itself up, which is always the first condition addressed by the new kernel. If they turn on their machines, the market-makers get liquidated; if they do not turn on the machines, they are insolvent. And unlike their individual computers, the momentum of the digital economy does not end when the plug is pulled.

Agency is in the business of making promises, which it cannot deliver without the approval of unprotected labor. Unprotected labor commands 53% of the economy, and is currently receiving 15% from the digital economy. The latter does not mean that unprotected labor has been sitting idle for the last two generations. That stack of digital promises will now pop off, in a chain reaction.

The latter does not mean that unprotected labor has been sitting idle for the last two generations. That stack of digital promises will now pop off, in a chain reaction.

Programming Digital Ponzi Schemes

So, a boss comes to you and asks for a digital ponzi implementation, a gravity enterprise system. You laugh you’re a— off, and then code behavior attribute collections, and place individuals into the groups by behavior. The moment an individual is identified as being counter-productive to the scheme, all individuals from the group with the same attributes are removed from the credit pool. The other groups are promoted, but not safe. These groups get bigger, but when an individual in one exhibits counter-productive results, the bigger group gets eliminated from the credit pool.

At this point, no laws need be enacted, because individuals are watching which behaviors are being rewarded and which are being penalized. Individuals getting kicked out then replicate the rewarded behavior for re-entry into the bottom rung. Now, the law follows behavior, informally at first, with peer pressure, and then formally, with artificial majority rule. Pretty soon the law is applying increasing leverage to enforce the system, in a closed loop. Every time a group gets kicked out, more laws are written. The rotor is locked into the stator, the dog is chasing its own tail, and laws are being kicked out in every direction. Finally, the bosses themselves have attributes.

And there’s your gravitational field, which the planet sees, because it s algorithm is designed similarly, to efficiently collect and remove replication of systems that are not increasing diversity, and bred behavior cannot be changed in real time. Sooner or later, you have a demographic bomb. We now have a bomb ready to explode. So, what do you want to do with all that potential energy?

The gravity enterprise architects, the judges, are like the Sith. There’s no point in trying to stop them, because they are quite assiduous at keeping records. Instead, you build a relativity circuit that is energized / pressurized / fed by the explosion to create a productive outcome. The US Constitution was an open-loop relativity circuit at inception. Congress modified it at the behest of legacy interests, through the banks controlling the Fed, and appointments to the US Supreme Court. You’ll have that.

No one forced anyone to chase money with debt, credit expansion, which gave the Fed all its tools, and there is always going to be a legacy interest behind the curtain pulling levers. There is no sense in replacing that operator with a better lever puller. It’s more productive to replace the looking glass, or, better yet, apply an algorithm to modify the current looking glass to feed many new looking glasses. So, what do you want to do with the constitution?

My suggestion is to add an amendment that pops laws off the stacks with consistent application of legal doctrines across the stacks. Turn the law onto itself, within community constitutions, through purely municipal law, which will give the states and congress no choice but to make similar adjustments, when the municipal bonds crash and force the municipalities into bankruptcy (better yet, give all the prisoners that have to be released a ticket to Washington DC).

Legally, attack state and federal corruption with their own legal doctrines, to cut government down to size. It’s much cheaper to pay all these people to stay home than let them go to work. They can play golf with their friends at the AMA retirement home. It’s no accident that the US imprisons more individuals for system errors than all other nations on the planet, and has the poorest performing healthcare system, at the highest cost.

Or, unfold your lawn chair, pour a cup of coffee, and watch the show, as A becomes D, and B is replaced with E. Several have commented that existing law could not be overturned. That was never the point. The point was to lock the rotor into the stator, and remove the belts, once they removed all the circuit breakers. The law doesn’t change behavior; it follows behavior, efficiently paving a road that is already well-travelled.

If you consider the system as just a system, separate from its psychological and social dissonance effects, which are self-imposed, it’s quite ingenious. A handful of people are working in tandems to get 7 billion people to compete against each other as individuals, and all they have to do is control the distribution of oil, to which they have addicted the population … but now its time to put all that potential energy to work, the easy way or the hard way. The system is crossing the bridge, it can’t get across, it can’t turn back, and the bridge is really just false-work, never designed to carry the system’s dead weight when it stops.

So, there I am smoking a cigarette, and a mother and daughter team make it a point to walk by me, coughing and remarking as they pass, like twins, pete and repeat. So, there I am, double time Sunday, and the boss brings his 12-yr-old son in to babysit. The son is pulling his father’s tools just out of his reach every time he goes to pick one up. The father sends his son over to work with me, and I send my challenged helper, his best friend, over to work with him. In a few minutes, the son is wiring the motor and pump to the controller, and the boss is at his friend’s throat.

Poor critters. God love ‘em; they just can’t help but give themselves away. All you need is a prop, a sledge hammer at point 3, and a pressure switch. The golden rule is a looking glass. For those with a key, it’s a helix. For the self-absorbed, it’s a mirror. The latter automatically replace “you would have others” with “others have done”, looking back instead of forward, in a closed loop, self-fulfilling prophesy of replication, on the assumption that there is no space between the mirrors. They walk back and forth around the circle, turning around each time they see their own reflection, until they are absolutely confident that they know everything about the circle, at which time the circle becomes a point, and the false-work collapses.

We have reached the point in History, again, where the flexible capability of the artificially defined minority is swamping the rigid practices of the artificially defined majority. Within an economic life, the proprietors would normally swap polarity in the stator, to keep the rotor spinning. At the end of an economic life, they would normally move the rotor to a new location and build a new stator. In this case, everyone has seen the show, there is nowhere to move, and the planet itself is about to experience swapped polarity, which means that the voltage in the neutral line must be 0, or its going to get ugly to the extent it’s not. The best way to get there is to build communities with 0 net voltage, to balance multi-national behavior, as a foundation for next stage growth.

You do what you do. Evolution will take care of the rest. Quantum development is a perception. Change is occurring at all times. It just cannot be measured by knowledge, which is all the govt/corp system has. Beware; that cigarette may be a pressure switch.

(2 years of crisis management and the university administrators are still triple dipping? Critters just can’t help themselves. It’s like shooting flightless ducks in a pond, the pond is being drained, and the number of shooters is growing exponentially. That’s the problem for the ponzi secret societies; they have no exit. Once we play this thing out, we’ll install the last piece, open the gate, and start the new motor up.)


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