Has the World Seriously Underestimated Climate-Change Effects?

Cornell University professor of earth and atmospheric sciences, Charles Greene, one of the authors of "A Very Inconvenient Truth," published in the peer-reviewed journal Oceanography (March 2010), said that he and his co-authors conclude that the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 4th assessment report underestimates the potential dangerous effects that man-made climate change will have on society.

"Even if all man-made greenhouse gas emissions were stopped tomorrow and carbon-dioxide levels stabilized at today's concentration, by the end of this century the global average temperature would increase by about 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit, or about 2.4 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels, which is significantly above the level which scientists and policymakers agree is a threshold for dangerous climate change," Greene said.

"Of course, greenhouse gas emissions will not stop tomorrow, so the actual temperature increase will likely be significantly larger, resulting in potentially catastrophic impacts to society unless other steps are taken to reduce the Earth's temperature.

"Furthermore, while the oceans have slowed the amount of warming we would otherwise have seen for the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the ocean's thermal inertia will also slow the cooling we experience once we finally reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. This means that the temperature rise we see this century will be largely irreversible for the next thousand years.

"Reducing greenhouse gas emissions alone is unlikely to mitigate the risks of dangerous climate change. Society should significantly expand research into geoengineering solutions that remove and sequester greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. Geoengineering solutions must be in addition to, not replace, dramatic emission reductions if society is to avoid the most dangerous impacts from climate change."

Jason McManus via Cornell University

Comments

[hotels in India]

Of course, greenhouse gas emissions will not stop tomorrow

[Christian Rioux]

On the contrary, the human impact has been exagerated. The current models used by ecologist doesn't take into account natural cycles, like solar activity cycles, ice ages cycles, orbital cycles etc.. which have a LOT more impact on the climate than CO2.

[GeogGuy]

Actual climatologists do take into account all the various "forcings" that affect climate. Check out the Real Climate blog which tracks the science closely.

[Ledgwins]

A peer-reviewed journal article called A Very Inconvenient Truth. Obviously not an attempt to gain notoriety. Another in a large list of small things that reinforces my skepticism.

[nepharous]

I am of the opinion that we have already started geoengineering of the upper atmosphere. I'm a stay at home dad with time to burn so I watch the sky. Over the last two years I have become convinced that aerosols are being sprayed by jetliners into the upper atmosphere. "Chemtrail" is a misleading term but I think what we are seeing in the sky are not contrails. Contrails evaperate but these chemtrails stay up for hours and smear across the sky. A haze always follows these trails. I think we are looking at a solar shield being created above populated areas. Iron oxide particles work like mirrors reflecting light back into space. I'm interested if anyone else thinks this may be a reality.

[OhNoNotAgain]

Global warming via man is the inconvenient truth.

The fact that one of those so called scientists actually made the claim that solar radiation does not affect climate here on earth is totally ignoring the other 7 planets. Mars and Jupiter have also visibly experienced global climate changes at the same time as earth. I am fairly certain that man has not even been to either planet to affect them. So how is it that they experience global climate changes at all?

It is still not true that if you say something often enough it makes it true.

[redhorizons]

Good, good... just keep your heads in the sand. Keep pretending our bad habits have no effect. I suppose cigarettes and diets of high fat and sugar have had no negative effects either. Because I know this really old person that has smoked 2 packs a day and eats bacon and Big Macs everyday...
We are so good at finding "evidence" to support our beliefs so we do not have to accept reality. I fear not just for my children's future, but my own. Will it be a slow fall or a like a trigger being pressed.

[Hotlink]

"Good, good... just keep your heads in the sand. Keep pretending our bad habits have no effect"

No, you are partly right IMO. Man kind does have an effect on the environment, but again IMO it is mostly through land use policies. Not, through GHG's though some can have a health effect on man kind. This needs to be worked out,and will over time. But to claim man is solely responsible for any of the warming of the past 30 years is nothing short of fraud.

Ever notice how scientists write a report, they say "the Ice is melting!" then follow up with "man has got to change it's ways" or, "man is at fault", but they don't actually explain the connection.

[Robert Burt]

My girlfriend was very cold to me today. How could that happen if global warming is real?

[Fred Zeppelin]

And I thought Henny-Penny was an amusing story...

I still am amazed how much has changed since the Declaration of Settled Science/Debate, and the outpour of data to counter the settled $cience. Yet, we see continued grasping of the slippery rope as the meme plunges into the gorge.

I remember my biology teacher presenting how important to plant life CO2 is, yet the good Dr. Greene counters that. What is Dr. Greene's Ph.D in - chicken innards and thrown bones?

I guess he's not keeping up on facts and the news reports (mostly, outside the US media) - you can find a whole host over on Climae Depot...

I won't be sending my child to Cornell, or even Penn State...

[Dredd]

It is more likely that the dangers are underestimated and under-reported because when people become scared, due to subconscious fears of death, they try to malign or kill the messenger.

In ancient times kings would sometimes kill the bearer of bad news, so like some ancient "newsmen", modern reporters get lost on the way to give the king bad news.

Say goodbye to itsy bitsy Atlantis.

http://ecocosmology.blogspot.com/2010/03/goodbye-itsy-bitsy-atlantis.html

[Zarkov]

overlooked...LOL
the ubiquitous anthropogenic petroleum oil in the marine micro-layer has been overlooked, or has it?

BigOil is hiding the truth...this world is heading for an Ice Age.

In fact the levels of CO2 are saving the planet ATM..
Once all the terrestrial freshwater has flowed onto the sea surface..... you are going to be here to see this, but you are not going to like up.

So keep pumping oil, keep spilling/driving/burning... not too long to go
It is not atmospheric heating that is a worry, its the massive heat being accumulated by the ocean
goodluck

[sassy]

u got 2 be kiddin!!!wat d hell is dis global warmin stuff???

[G.O.D(GODAMN OLD DOG)]

GLOBOL WARMIN..CLIMATE CHANGE DOESN'T GO TO MA HEAD...THICK BRAINED...LOL

[Francis]

More and more catastrophic rains over the planet, more dry and long summer....It is not my fault, it's my neighbor's .
We must go on using big 4x4 driving our children to school , We must go on using 400 liters a day per person , we must drop trashes everywhere and eject high toxic fumes in the atmosphere.Anyhow we are going to die. So why have we to take care of our children and their future ?