Stephen Hawking: "Why Isn't the Milky Way Crawling With Mechanical or Biological Life?" (A New Year's Weekend Classic)

In his famous lecture on Life in the Universe, Stephen Hawking asks: "What are the chances that we will encounter some alien form of life, as we explore the galaxy?"

If the argument about the time scale for the appearance of life on Earth is correct, Hawking says "there ought to be many other stars, whose planets have life on them. Some of these stellar systems could have formed 5 billion years before the Earth. So why is the galaxy not crawling with self-designing mechanical or biological life forms?"

In his famous lecture on Life in the Universe, Stephen Hawking asks: "What are the chances that we will encounter some alien form of life, as we explore the galaxy?"

If the argument about the time scale for the appearance of life on Earth is correct, Hawking says "there ought to be many other stars, whose planets have life on them. Some of these stellar systems could have formed 5 billion years before the Earth. So why is the galaxy not crawling with self-designing mechanical or biological life forms?"

Why hasn't the Earth been visited, and even colonized? Hawking asks. "I discount suggestions that UFO's contain beings from outer space. I think any visits by aliens, would be much more obvious, and probably also, much more unpleasant."

Hawking continues: "What is the explanation of why we have not been visited? One possibility is that the argument, about the appearance of life on Earth, is wrong. Maybe the probability of life spontaneously appearing is so low, that Earth is the only planet in the galaxy, or in the observable universe, in which it happened. Another possibility is that there was a reasonable probability of forming self reproducing systems, like cells, but that most of these forms of life did not evolve intelligence."

We are used to thinking of intelligent life, as an inevitable consequence of evolution, Hawking emphasized,  but it is more likely that evolution is a random process, with intelligence as only one of a large number of possible outcomes.

Intelligence, Hawking believes contrary to our human-centric existece, may not have any long-term survival value. In comparison the microbial world, will live on, even if all other life on Earth is wiped out by our actions. Hawking's main insight is that intelligence was an unlikely development for life on Earth, from the chronology of evolution:  "It took a very long time, two and a half billion years, to go from single cells to multi-cell beings, which are a necessary precursor to intelligence. This is a good fraction of the total time available, before the Sun blows up. So it would be consistent with the hypothesis, that the probability for life to develop intelligence, is low. In this case, we might expect to find many other life forms in the galaxy, but we are unlikely to find intelligent life."

Another possibility is that there is a reasonable probability for life to form, and to evolve to intelligent beings, but at some point in their technological  development "the system becomes unstable, and the intelligent life destroys itself. This would be a very pessimistic conclusion. I very much hope it isn't true."

Hawkling prefers another possibility: that there are other forms of intelligent life out there, but that we have been overlooked. If we should pick up signals from alien civilizations, Hawking warns,"we should have be wary of answering back, until we have evolved" a bit further. Meeting a more advanced civilization, at our present stage,' Hawking says "might be a bit like the original inhabitants of America meeting Columbus. I don't think they were better off for it."

Posted by Casey Kazan.

Image Credit: www.astro.columbia.edu/~astrobio/ProjectsII.html

This is the third in a three-part series on Stephen Hawking's views on life in the universe:

Stephen Hawking: "Humans Have Entered a New Stage of Evolution"
Stephen Hawking: "Asteroid Impacts Biggest Threat to Intelligent Life in the Galaxy"

Related Galaxy posts:

The METI Controversy (Revisited) : Should Detection by an Exo Civilization Be Viewed as a Threat?

The 10,000 Year Explosion: Has Human Civilization Turbo Charged Evolution?
Homo Sapiens -The "Time Travelers" -A Galaxy Classic
“Hyper-Speed” Evolution Discovered
Bringing Ancient Human Viruses Back to Life: A Jurassic Park or Salvation?

Immense Journey

Source: http://www.rationalvedanta.net/node/131

Why hasn't the Earth been visited, and even colonized? Hawking asks. "I discount suggestions that UFO's contain beings from outer space. I think any visits by aliens, would be much more obvious, and probably also, much more unpleasant."

Hawking continues: "What is the explanation of why we have not been visited? One possibility is that the argument, about the appearance of life on Earth, is wrong. Maybe the probability of life spontaneously appearing is so low, that Earth is the only planet in the galaxy, or in the observable universe, in which it happened. Another possibility is that there was a reasonable probability of forming self reproducing systems, like cells, but that most of these forms of life did not evolve intelligence."

We are used to thinking of intelligent life, as an inevitable consequence of evolution, Hawking emphasized,  but it is more likely that evolution is a random process, with intelligence as only one of a large number of possible outcomes.

Intelligence, Hawking believes contrary to our human-centric existece, may not have any long-term survival value. In comparison the microbial world, will live on, even if all other life on Earth is wiped out by our actions. Hawking's main insight is that intelligence was an unlikely development for life on Earth, from the chronology of evolution:  "It took a very long time, two and a half billion years, to go from single cells to multi-cell beings, which are a necessary precursor to intelligence. This is a good fraction of the total time available, before the Sun blows up. So it would be consistent with the hypothesis, that the probability for life to develop intelligence, is low. In this case, we might expect to find many other life forms in the galaxy, but we are unlikely to find intelligent life."

Another possibility is that there is a reasonable probability for life to form, and to evolve to intelligent beings, but at some point in their technological  development "the system becomes unstable, and the intelligent life destroys itself. This would be a very pessimistic conclusion. I very much hope it isn't true."

Hawkling prefers another possibility: that there are other forms of intelligent life out there, but that we have been overlooked. If we should pick up signals from alien civilizations, Hawking warns,"we should have be wary of answering back, until we have evolved" a bit further. Meeting a more advanced civilization, at our present stage,' Hawking says "might be a bit like the original inhabitants of America meeting Columbus. I don't think they were better off for it."

Posted by Casey Kazan.

Image Credit: www.astro.columbia.edu/~astrobio/ProjectsII.html

This is the third in a three-part series on Stephen Hawking's views on life in the universe:

Stephen Hawking: "Humans Have Entered a New Stage of Evolution"
Stephen Hawking: "Asteroid Impacts Biggest Threat to Intelligent Life in the Galaxy"

Related Galaxy posts:

The METI Controversy (Revisited) : Should Detection by an Exo Civilization Be Viewed as a Threat?

The 10,000 Year Explosion: Has Human Civilization Turbo Charged Evolution?
Homo Sapiens -The "Time Travelers" -A Galaxy Classic
“Hyper-Speed” Evolution Discovered
Bringing Ancient Human Viruses Back to Life: A Jurassic Park or Salvation?

Immense Journey

Source: http://www.rationalvedanta.net/node/131

Why hasn't the Earth been visited, and even colonized? Hawking asks. "I discount suggestions that UFO's contain beings from outer space. I think any visits by aliens, would be much more obvious, and probably also, much more unpleasant."

Hawking continues: "What is the explanation of why we have not been visited? One possibility is that the argument, about the appearance of life on Earth, is wrong. Maybe the probability of life spontaneously appearing is so low, that Earth is the only planet in the galaxy, or in the observable universe, in which it happened. Another possibility is that there was a reasonable probability of forming self reproducing systems, like cells, but that most of these forms of life did not evolve intelligence."

We are used to thinking of intelligent life, as an inevitable consequence of evolution, Hawking emphasized,  but it is more likely that evolution is a random process, with intelligence as only one of a large number of possible outcomes.

Intelligence, Hawking believes contrary to our human-centric existece, may not have any long-term survival value. In comparison the microbial world, will live on, even if all other life on Earth is wiped out by our actions. Hawking's main insight is that intelligence was an unlikely development for life on Earth, from the chronology of evolution:  "It took a very long time, two and a half billion years, to go from single cells to multi-cell beings, which are a necessary precursor to intelligence. This is a good fraction of the total time available, before the Sun blows up. So it would be consistent with the hypothesis, that the probability for life to develop intelligence, is low. In this case, we might expect to find many other life forms in the galaxy, but we are unlikely to find intelligent life."

Another possibility is that there is a reasonable probability for life to form, and to evolve to intelligent beings, but at some point in their technological  development "the system becomes unstable, and the intelligent life destroys itself. This would be a very pessimistic conclusion. I very much hope it isn't true."

Hawkling prefers another possibility: that there are other forms of intelligent life out there, but that we have been overlooked. If we should pick up signals from alien civilizations, Hawking warns,"we should have be wary of answering back, until we have evolved" a bit further. Meeting a more advanced civilization, at our present stage,' Hawking says "might be a bit like the original inhabitants of America meeting Columbus. I don't think they were better off for it."

Posted by Casey Kazan.

Image Credit: www.astro.columbia.edu/~astrobio/ProjectsII.html

This is the third in a three-part series on Stephen Hawking's views on life in the universe:

Stephen Hawking: "Humans Have Entered a New Stage of Evolution"
Stephen Hawking: "Asteroid Impacts Biggest Threat to Intelligent Life in the Galaxy"

Related Galaxy posts:

The METI Controversy (Revisited) : Should Detection by an Exo Civilization Be Viewed as a Threat?

The 10,000 Year Explosion: Has Human Civilization Turbo Charged Evolution?
Homo Sapiens -The "Time Travelers" -A Galaxy Classic
“Hyper-Speed” Evolution Discovered
Bringing Ancient Human Viruses Back to Life: A Jurassic Park or Salvation?

Immense Journey

Source: http://www.rationalvedanta.net/node/131

Comments

[Andrew T]

I tend to agree with the speculation that life in general may be somewhat common, but that intelligent life could be quite rare. Consider that in Earth's history there have been over half a dozen species of hominids other than homo sapiens, and all have gone extinct. Even our own species teetered on the edge of extinction around 60,000 years ago. If an alien planet has a slightly less stable orbit or precession, or gets slammed by a large comet or asteroid at just the wrong time (is there ever a good time for an asteroid strike?), a nascent intelligent species could easily be wiped out.

I think also that once a species advances to the point where it can easily and feasibly start spreading out among the stars, concepts like "conquest" no longer hold meaning for it. Why bother colonizing the Earth, with the ensuing loss of biological data, when raw materials could easily be mined from any asteroid, moon or lifeless planet?

For that matter, why spread out at all? A sufficiently advanced civilization with Star Trek-like replicators would not need much in the way of new, additional raw materials. Existing matter could simply be broken down and recycled/reformed into whatever was desired.

Another possibility is that a civilization could upload itself, living most of its existence in a virtual world where "material goods" could simply be added in like adding furniture in Second Life; no actual matter would be needed at all. Their only reason for foraying back into the real world would be to maintain their internet, and to make more computronium and energy sources. Assuming that virtual creatures had any desire (or ability) to produce offspring at all, their population could easily grow into the quintillions or far greater before they would need to spread beyond their home system.

[Perrin Rynning]

Hopefully, human behavior is not the norm for the rest of the universe's intelligent life, but until relatively recently, human tendencies regarding collecting resources used the "take whatever's available in the easiest way possible, flatten the natives if any" pattern. I, personally, would like to think that we're growing out of the "MINE! IT'S ALL MINE!" mentality, but given the behavior of certain petrochemical companies in the so-called "Third World", I may be overly optimistic.

"Spreading out" is necessary, regardless of any civilization's level technological development, due to population pressure. Humans' drive to "go forth and multiply" seems to be an almost irresistible biological imperative, urged on by various cultural institutions that consider birth control reprehensible. As Malthus pointed out, unrestricted breeding can only be countered by either relentless "culling" via wars, plagues, famine and all the other life-threatening ills, or by expanding to the stars.

[alex a]

I hope none of those theories are true.
Because if they are we are doomed.
Some day some idiot is gonna do something to destroy this earth and we will all be gone.
Thats why space exploration is so important to insure our species survival.
The theory i like to go with is that we are being watch and being left alone to develop on our own.If this aliens are watching us they have to be smarter than us and think on a different level especially if they have mastered space travel.
The only thing they do is go off into the stars and look for more life forms.
Isn't that what we do.We send robots into space to look for life.
As i sit here in my computer i think what if we really are unique and rare.
Wow i think thats probably the most important question in this world.

[t k]

Perhaps we are the result of some older intelligence having gone forth to multiply. We might be the offspring of scattered seeds upon the vastness of our observable space. Anyone put down grass seed last season and wonder why one patch grew and the empty space next to it produced none? Simple enough.

[Harrrie]

I like Alex A's theory. If you look at our history and current events, we are so violent and unpredictable that aliens would be taking a big risk to interact with us. I also believe that there are countless intelligent civilizations out there. There are so many stars, they have to be there. Just like we are here. And they are doing anything and everything that we can imagine plus things we can't even begin to imagine. They are terra-forming planets, flying thru spacewarps, traveling thru time, casting off drones and robots, and using the universe in whatever way they need too. Also, our idea of intelligence is not their idea of intelligence. We are violent, just barely intelligent animals who don't have the smarts to keep from destroying our Earth. We are so bad. I wish they would come here and help us.

[arc]

Who wrote this article? A high school journalism class could have taught this person how to use a comma and construct a sentence. Please, get an editor. You should not, use too many, commas in a sentence, I think, in my humble, opinion.

[Simon Salosny]

Steven Hawking and the five comments eloquently summ up what may be the truth, in a unique sequence of explanatory statements, representing human intelligence at its best.

Bravo!

[Navesh]

Why do people assume any life out there would be smarter than us ? An alien is always some creature with superior technology. Did it ever occur to anyone that the aliens are more stupid than us ? That they are still tied to their planet the same way we are? Fact is no one can come up with any technology that can take a manned craft to the next galaxy or even a fraction of the way in this one within a reasonable time frame. If we don't, by luck, happen to be in a small visitable sector of space with another developing species then we will never see anything. Even if they were within range we might never see them. Look at us, we can barely make it to the moon in one piece. If an entire alien race was living on Venus we couldn't know a thing about it. If we do manage another 1000 years of humans I still don't see a human getting to Andromeda, if light can't do it in reasonable time then I have no confidence a carbon based life form will do better. I would love to see humans achieve long distance space travel, but commonsense tells me it won't happen. The science doesn't exist, the Universe is too vast!

[Frater EBN Mayim]

Hawking is a brilliant mind, but he works exclusively with Beta brainwaves. He is not going to perceive the 5th Element with his eyes open.
When our eyes are open we are running on Highly Dense distorted brainwaves called BetaWaves. As smart as Hawking is, he is talking through his Lowest-Self.

We are not our bodies. If you go deep into Theta brainwaves you are made up of a Finer Substance. THIS is where you want to form an opinion on complex matters such as this.

Hawking has never entered a Mystery School, so he does not "Know thyself". It is not "what you know", it is the Order in which you receive it that counts.

The mundane 4 elements cannot perceive of, and therefore cannot See the 5th Essence. The Quintessence. The 5th Element.

If you think this has nothing to do with "aliens" and "outer lifeforms", think again.
Higher Life Forms are made up of a finer substance, and they do not "solidify" in highly-dense and crude Beta Waves.

The Earth has those who are highly dense and it has those who are made up of a Finer Substance.
Like begets like, so what you Relate to is what you get.

Do you Relate to endless discussions running on Beta Brainwaves (use an EKG) that never get you anywhere? This is where you will find your Self, everyday.

Do you Relate to Beings of a Finer Substance who will bring Order to the Chaos that surrounds you? If you do, then these are your Relatives.

What you "attune" to with the Frequency of your Mind is the "family" of vibrations you Relate to and you are re-United with after transformation.

Hawking has a Higher Self and he does not run on Beta Waves. The ego-driven Lower Self demands "beeps and boops, diagrams and wires" to prove something that was proven long ago.

Nothing is hidden from humanity. They hide it from them Selves and then re-discover it in their own time.

If you are a "beeps and dials, technology-driven" sort of person, you are relating to Highly Dense Beta Brainwaves that are sure to provide plenty of Static Interference.

Watching the most intelligent man on Earth struggle with such a Natural Concept, evident to all who's Eye is Single, is hard to bear.

But it is also why the Mystery Schools refer to the Intellect as the Lower Self and Wisdom as the Higher Self.

An intellectual man thinks that intelligence is Wisdom. Einstein knew better eventually.

Hawking will know eventually and so will the those who insist on running our Betawaves into the dirt.
Nothing is hidden from them that they didn't hide from themselves. They continue to hide it from them Selves.

Close your l-eyes and you will close the lies. Become a person of a Finer Substance and you will know beings of a Finer Substance.

Continue on in your stubborn Beta-wave patterns and be prepared to "intellect" your life away, never learning from the information that is presented to you.

Anyone can eat Information but very few gain Understanding.

Your an amazing man Hawking, but you are only able to perceive of the 4 elements. Break out of your box. Find your 5th element, unite with it. There you will have the answer that no public society can provide.

Love and Light,
Mem Key
Frater EBN Mayim

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[Barry Hames]

Paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould first presented the idea that intelligent life is an incredibly random event highly unlikely to occur again in his book 'Wonderful Life'. Hawking takes his idea from there. That may or may not be true. What is true is the remarkable number of coincidences it took to have created complex life on Earth, including, of course, us.

We must first be almost exactly the distance we are from the sun in order to have liquid water, something absolutely necessary for life as we understand it. We must also have a moon about the size and distance from us as ours to both allow life to move from the sea to land through tidal forces and to help move the continents around on our liquid core base. This movement of land masses has profound effects upon life through climate change, vulcanism, and other factors that help fuel evolutionary change. The moon itself is actually a remnant of a small planet that long ago collided with the earth, a very rare event indeed.

Our molten inner core is also rare. No other planet in the solar system has it and it is important for the strong magnetic field it produces which protects us from the deadly cosmic rays beamed at us daily from the sun and stars. It also brings to the surface many heavier elements like copper, iron, and others vital to both life and our modern technology.

The Earth is also required to be just about the size it is to create a force of gravity strong enough to retain an atmosphere and weak enough to allow large complex life forms to exist on the surface. These and many other factors make our place in the cosmos very likely unique and, coupled with the highly unlikely event of intelligent life evolving at all, make intelligent life elsewhere staggeringly improbable.

These facts have also stirred up considerable speculation about our place and importance in the cosmos. Look up the Anthropic Principle for some fascinating debates.