Will Amazon's Kindle Will Replace the Book -Pundits Say "Yes"

The Kindle 2 is a “fundamentally better experience than inked paper. Jeff Bezos—Amazon’s founder and C.E.O.—has built a machine that marks a cultural revolution. Printed books, the most important artifacts of human civilization, are going to join newspapers and magazines on the road to obsolescence.”

Jacob Weisberg, the editor-in-chief of the Slate Group/Newsweek

The Kindle is the logical evolution of a 500-year-old analog technology that terrifies the $24 billion book-publishing industry already faint from Amazon's growing dominance.

The newspaper industry, says Russ Wilcox, an entrepreneur from Harvard Business School and founder of E Ink  in a brilliant article in this week's New Yorker by Nicholson Baker 
was a hundred-and-eighty-billion-dollar-a-year business, and book publishing was an additional eighty billion. Half of that was papermaking, ink mixing, printing, transport, inventory, and the warehousing of physical goods. “So you can save a hundred and thirty billion dollars a year if you move the information digitally,” Wilcox told Baker. “There’s a lot of hidden forces at work that are all combining to make this sort of a big tidal wave that’s coming.” The economic pressures are immense.”

On June 12th, Gizmodo announced that the Kindle DX,  just started shipping on Amazon to extend it's e-book reach to include textbooks and periodicals, which it will test-market to college students.The DX was sold out before the end of the week. "Either people really love that DX, the Gizmodo team quipped, "or the Earth only produces enough resources to sustain manufacturing a few units at a time."

The Gizmodo report underscores the obvious fact that the Kindle has gripped the public imagination like it's, well, like it's a new iPod or iPhone release, The Kindle, now in it's second iteration,  is the first book-industry hit of its kind, selling hundreds of thousands of units since its introduction in November 2007. It's the first with built-in wireless 3G connectivity, making it possible to download whole volumes in less than a minute -- more than 1,500 books can fit on a single machine -- with titles often less than half the price of a traditional hardcover.

Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos' rvision is "to have every book ever printed, in any language, all available in under 60 seconds." Wall Street analysts estimate that Amazon sold a half-million Kindles last year and projects its total e-book revenue, which includes sales of books and devices, to reach $1.2 billion by 2010. There are currently 275,000 titles are available in the Kindle format, including nearly all 112 books on The New York Times best-seller list.

It's obvious that Jeff Bezos is trying to do to book publishers what Steve Jobs of Apple did to the music industry.

With its first-mover advantage, Apple rapidly built iPod and iTunes Store,creating a new platform standard that wrested control of the digital-music distribution system. Should Amazon succeed, they could marginalize book publishers, phasing them out completely, treating them as the latest victims of creative destruction orphaned by a new technology.

In the new world of e-books, publishers could team with authors and multimedia producers to  create e-books that go far beyond linear text, incorporating a blend of text, video, audio interviews, 3-D maps -- an entire ecosystem of content built on top of a technology that was perfected in the 16th century.

Posted by Casey Kazan.

Image credit: The New Yorker/newyorker.com

Source:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/08/03/090803fa_fact_baker?currentPage=1
http://gizmodo.com/5288615/kindle-dx-sells-out-in-two-days Image credit: Gizmodo
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/137/the-evolution-of-amazon.html

Comments

[jamerz3294]

Never gonna happen. Sure the Kindle is a great piece of Techno Wizardry, and it probably will find a way into most people's lives. But I doubt that it will ever, completely replace a book! Especially when it comes to recreational reading, the weight, and feel of a book (particularly a hardback), the turning of pages, and use of a bookmark are sensations that become equated with the pleasure of a good read.

[vanderleun]

Oh, really? I say it will until the first time it's lost or stolen or crashes or is erased with about $500 worth of books on it. Those things look very tasty on the laps.... especially as the train pulls into the next stop and you are nuts enough to be sitting right by the door.

[Pete Tzinski]

I mean...it COULD do all that stuff, sure. And I COULD leap off my balcony and discover I have the ability to fly. But both are pretty unlikely.

Just because it sold out doesn't necessarily mean much, by the by. AMazon has notably refused to release their sales figures all the way through the life of the Kindle so far. Who knows how many sold of any model?

I'm not clinging to books out of a "books will always be around! people like the feel of them!" sort of mentality. I just keep waiting for the Kindle to do something that will convince me it's going to blow eBooks away...the way that the MP3 and the iPod meant that we suddenly felt silly carrying a Discman. It has to convince us without us even thinking about it.

BOOKS haven't been found wanting yet. Nobody throws down a book in disgust because of a lack of features. I've talked about eBook readers before. I still want something new and innovative, not something that tries to imitate books.

(and I have to admit, when I'm out and about and on college campuses, I see more Sony eBook Readers than I do Kindles. I don't make much of that, but there it is.)

[Adam]

If they could only get that content to show up in a HTML based format, like the web; the kindle would become obsolete. You could buy a nice laptop for the price of a Kindle.

[Gary Williams]

If I go out and buy a book it's mine to do with as I see fit.

If I got out and by an ebook Amazon can still delete it from me without my consent or approval.

For that reason I'll stick with paper.

[nepharous]

I hate to rain on everyone's digital parade but how do we plan on powering these units and all the other gizmos out there when we are facing global energy depletion? We on this planet are so woefully behind the eightball in regards to our energy consumption. We don't have enough time now to build a true smart grid and all its components. Peak Oil has already happened with $147.50 a barrel oil. Now we've got about 10 years before the final resource grabs deplete our domestic/civilian supplies of energy. What will happen when we are given a choice between powering the local hospital or your favorite power gadget? I bet the public nessesaties doom our individual electrical habits quick. Just a thought.

[Simon Levesque]

Firstly the title of this article is a bit confusing (an extra 'will' in there perhaps).
I'd prefer a proper hardcover book over a digital ebook anyday, but I would think power is a much more renewable resource than paper and all the associated transport costs.

[sam]

Can I take a pencil to this Kindle thing and liberally annotate every third para, in addition to using said Kindle to prop up the wonky mirror in the bathroom that I'll never get round to fixing (have read the existing propper four times now so I'll never need to move it again anyway)? Does Kindle convey the same cultural signifiers as e.g. an elegant catalogue raisonnee or the latest CountryLife when placed artfully on my coffee table...?

Ah no. Thought not.

[* 'pencil' - n. tool for making marks upon any receptive, usually of natural/organic origin, material; derived from Stone Age technology (first digital period). ]

[2.718]

So, can I freely copy the books for backup and/or to read them with a different reader on different hardware? Can I highlight, underline, scribble notes on the margin, all in different colors and fold the corner of the page, glue in a snippet from another source or customize my book in a multitude of other ways?

Once all those questions can be answered "yes", I'll be interested.

[Karen]

When the electronic book debate starts I ask 'How do I push my fingers through the holes of The Very Hungry Caterpillar and lift the flap to find Spot or feel the textures in many board books'. I don't believe books for children would survive in their present form if the ebook became the adult norm and I believe this would have a knock on effect for literacy and reading for pleasure that would be cataclysmic for us all.

I may be wrong but a quick search on Amazon has shown me accessories but not the Kindle itself available for purchase in the UK. Rest of the world?

Commenting as a Children's/School Librarian

[sam]

I don't understand the point of these claims at all.

This is why the Kindle will not work, not a technology revolution or even evolution just another product:

1. Its not new, E-book readers have been around for years, just take a look in Japan/Korea, its not new tech.

2. Lacks support for open formats. Many better e-book readers out there which support more formats.

3. The 1984 episode recently scared off serious early adopters. The argument there was 'we reserve the right to remove content from your kindle if we stuffed up the fine print with our licensing' which is fundamentally different to say accidentally buying stolen physical property and having the cops come round to reclaim it. And the way in which Amazon went about doing it was the worst possible way to remove content. Really means you buy the rights to access content versus owning a tangible item. People hate this technicality, it has/will always undo success of a product.

4. Longevity: books last a lot longer than a kindle. Look at the MTBF for an LCD screen/flash memory, capacitors, battery etc. We can't manufacture stuff like this which will last a long time. Good books last. We are already facing huge potential problems with archiving digital content to avoid a black hole of information about the world today in 50-100 years. Many pre-eminent computer scientists believe we will effectively need 'computer archaeologists' in the future just to deal with recovering data from contemporary sources.

5. Its a computer screen. Although LCD's are 'passive displays' and not an electron gun like old CRT's they do get hard to stare at for long periods of time. There is tangible evidence reading a book is probably easier and long-term better. Not to mention avid readers prefer tactile feel of a book. Paperless office? Paperless bookshelf?

6. Cultural reasons. This seems to be British / Americans are discovering something which is not even a footnote in 'new functionality' yet for some cultures and yet will still remain useless because of prohibitive costs or cultural inertia. How would this go in a 3rd world country versus books? Even in 20-30 years. Unless this concept of an 'e-book' becomes a commodity like PC's and that certainly won't happen with a monopolised closed product like kindle, there needs to be an ecosystem for things like this to be adopted not a monoculture.

7. *Fundamentally What is a book? Its a large string mostly read in a linear way. If you get creative you may want to bookmark points in the string. Or refer to an index somewhere.
*Where is a computational device effective? Where you suddenly need to traverse multiple strings and extract substrings from each at various points and bundle them together in another view which gives each substring context.
We already have this for quite a while with something called HTML, web 2.0/3.0, SQL databases... Data structures and nice fast methods to traverse this data. Computers already do this well, handheld devices, small notebooks, smartphones, gps smart fridges whatever. Suddenly you find yourself reading the small print to see what else the kindle can do... Is it as good as all the other gadgets for displaying information in this way. Not really, suddenly the reason for having a kindle or justifying its acquisition above other similar digital devices becomes precarious because there is so much stuff that does more and much better.

Where the next big win for small portable devices will be is something which is a book reader and about 20 dozen other things.

Books will be here in 100 years ill bet money on that. Proven reliable cheap archiving format reasonably good density per unit of space for linear text, people trust them more than finite state machines.

[SusanGrisantiGuitarist]

Prior to the electric guitar, all that existed was the acoustic guitar. Now they co-exist just fine, each with different applications. And they'll both be around in a hundred years.
KINDLE IS TO BOOKS WHAT CARS DID TO HORSES ONE HUNDRED YEARS AGO. But there are still plenty of horses available in the world for those who love them. Horses are still a very healthy sub culture in the world today.
Whenever I have any really important digital information to save, I always like to keep a paper copy around too 'just in case'...
Many times when I'm reading a book I like to reference spots on several different pages at once & be able to look at several pages at the same time for comparison. A paper book allows you to flip really fast & do this, & underline & write notes in your own handwriting so you can go back later to find important spots in the text.
Also one of the joys of a paper book is being able to loan or give it to a friend when I'm finished reading. I've given almost all of the books I've read to friends over the years. And I love finding used books that have previous readers notes & underlines, it's an interesting look at someone else's view as I'm reading.
And every book has a unique look & artistic design. The KINDLE always looks the same no matter what you're reading, so the experience is visually MORE BORING. Sorry Jeff B, you missed the point on that one! It would be like every painting in the LOUVRE having the same boring black frame, everyone would leave the museum quickly! Books are an art form & each one needs to be 'FRAMED' differently. Let's see KINDLE fix this problem!
I think the museum painting compared to new digital art may be a great analogy to what's happening with KINDLE & books. But paintings still sell & painters still find a way to make it in the competitive art world. Just like horses & cars.

[Megs]

You got to be kidding me. For all the rest of us folks who have yet to get an iPod since we actually LIKE those little packages that tell us lyrics and tales about the songs, and that don't have the several HUNDRED bucks to get a kindle and still prefer the LIBRARY anyway, this ain't ever going to happen.

You can't own an industry until everybody can afford it.

[Basuto9]

They'll get my hardbounds when they pry them from my cold, dead hands....

[SusanGrisantiGuitarist]

Now that I've had most of the day to think about this, there IS one further level Kindle can go to: literally a 'digital book' BUT with multiple paper thin 'pages' just like a real book, but the pages are 'reusable' & artwork & cover design completely change as you 'order' each book from cyberspace. This WOULD eliminate killing so many trees, it would still 'feel' like a real book with turnable pages, & look like a unique book with each download. I don't know if technology will ever be affordable to do this in the near future. (And of course it would be compatible with a 'light pen' so you could write multi- color 'notes' in the margins)~~
If KINDLE ever evolves to this, I'll buy one for sure...

[Mifkin]

There great and all but personally I can read for hours at a time, But I just cant stare at what is essentially a lighbulb for hours at a time.

[ray]

"Kindle" - to set fire to or ignite (fuel or any combustible matter).

Anybody else find some irony in the name? All digital media will make things a lot easier to burn ... in the future.

[Milkman]

BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING.

http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090730/qotd-kindle-ate-my-homework/

No thanks Amazon.

Amazon backdoored Kindles and deleted purchased media without notifying the customers. Issuing an apology for removing content is a slap in the face. If Amazon accidentally allowed content to be downloadable and purchaseable on its site, then it made the mistake, and should pay proper royalty fees to allow customers to keep what they downloaded. Rather than break public trust and delete without warning. Who wants to buy an e-book reader which can be backdoored without your knowlege and consent? Not this guy.

Digital readers may or may not be the future, but Amazon did insurmountable damage to themselves and the digital reader cause with their inept actions.

Naysayers may think this a frivilous lawsuit, but it's really to set a precedent for the consumer that you can't be backdoored and have things deleted.

And it's ironic a copy of "1984" was at the center of this issue.

[katie b]

I'm very happy to see that I'm not the only person on the face of the earth who wishes the kindle would simply spontaniously combust and rid this planet of its evil. I think I may be highly biased in this opinion an I live in a suburb that is full of rich snobs who believe that everything should be new and expensive, causing the indie bookstore down the street to close and the general response to be something along the lines of either "who cares? Barnes and noble is better" or "I just download all my books online". The same thing is creeping up with the kindle. I had a teacher (sociology) who talked for much of the class about how "with the new kindle, there won't need to be a pile of books back there and all of those movies will be easily accessible from the computer." I sat there the whole class with my mouth open ready to either smack him upside the head or run out of the room regardless of the consequences I was so frustrated with his view point. Yes, it is convient to have all the books you could ever want when you travel, I'm sure, but I look at my room and think "what would be in my room if all the books were on a kindle?" after thinking for maybe three seconds tops, I realize that I would have a desk, bed, dresser, and bookshelf. All of which would have very little on them (particularly that shelf that holds those paper things known as books.) or how about those insane people (cough. Not me obviously. cough) who stay up until midnight to get the really good books that people across the world are talking about? Yeah, there's gonna be somengreat memories formed sitting around in a room waiting until midnight to download the latest book. As long as poeple realize that there is more to a book than creative words forming a story on a page, the Kindle will not last.

[Llamatree]

Not very cheap to replace if stolen or broken :l