"The METI Controversy": Should Detection by an Exo Civilization Be Viewed as a Threat?

If we should pick up signals from alien civilizations, Stephen Hawking, our century's Einstein, warns: "we should have be wary of answering back, until we have evolved" a bit further. Meeting a more advanced civilization, at our present stage,' Hawking says "might be a bit like the original inhabitants of America meeting Columbus. I don't think they were better off for it."

Mankind has always been driven by contradictory drives.  The relentless curiosity that pushes us forward and is directly responsible for our progress from caves to  cities.  The fear of change that tells us "hang on, these caves/cities are really nice, we don't want to risk losing them."  There isn't any greater potential threat to the status quo than the discovery of extraterrestrial life, which is why some people would prefer we didn't try.

There has been some outrage recently over attempts to contact intelligent aliens, where instead of hiding in the corner and listening real hard some astronomers beamed intense directional messages up up and away.  Critics decried these actions as dangerous, though their fears reveal more about us than any eventual ETs.  They assume that they would be similar to humanity, so their first response to finding a more primitive culture would be to exploit the hell out of it.  While such a fate might be pleasingly ironic (for anyone who isn't human, at least), others contend that any species that can make the journey here has advanced to a point where their goals are rather higher-minded than "Shoot us".

Dr Alexander Zaitzev, of the Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, doesn't think much of these worries either way.  A proponent of METI (Messaging to Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence), in a recent paper he shows that the odds of one of the METI messages being detected is a millionth of that due to powerful radar pulses regularly used in astronomical investigation.  Though whether writing a paper saying "This METI thing we're doing has only a tiny chance of working" is overall a good idea remains to be seen.  An important point is that METI represents an intentional will to make contact, rather than the accidental alien interception of some random radiation from Earth - the difference between saying "Hello!" and just being a suspicious strange noise late at night.

Most of the objections to contacting aliens are weak under close examination.  We can't suddenly decide to hide after fifty years of pumping electromagnetic radiation into space without rhyme or reason - in fact, we'd better hope that an advanced civilization doesn't catch an episode of "American Idol" and just vaporize us outright.  Suddenly keeping quiet would be like a drunk boyfriend carefully taking off his shoes after knocking over a bookshelf on his way to the bedroom.

Then there's the assumption that aliens would have the same kind of technology we do - despite the extremely obvious fact that our technology can't actually get to other exo planets.  Any attempt to mask radio emissions will likely look like cavemen closing their eyes to hide from satellite imaging.

The simple fact is that certain people have always opposed progress while other, better people have driven it.  "Experts" decried boiled water as unhealthy compared the vital stuff straight from the river, cursed antibiotics as a temporary placebo, and confidently declared that computers were nothing but expensive toys.  As an intelligent species we must make every effort to contact anyone (or thing) we can.

Edited and Reposted for commentary by Luke McKinney.

Related Galaxy posts:

Stephen Hawking: Why Isn't the Milky Way "Crawling With Self-Designing Mechanical or Biological Life?"

Stephen Hawking: "Humans Have Entered a New Stage of Evolution"
Stephen Hawking: "Asteroid Impacts Biggest Threat to Intelligent Life in the Galaxy"

Related Galaxy posts:

The 10,000 Year Explosion: Has Human Civilization Turbo Charged Evolution?
Homo Sapiens -The "Time Travelers" -A Galaxy Classic
“Hyper-Speed” Evolution Discovered
Bringing Ancient Human Viruses Back to Life: A Jurassic Park or Salvation?

Immense Journey

Source: http://www.rationalvedanta.net/node/131

Comments

[Jason]

Great article but where did you get that header photo? Its amazing! I would really like it as a background in 1920 X 1080.

[Shakatany]

Well it's too late to hide. The aliens 50 light years from here can watch "I Love Lucy".

We are in our cradle but soon we will be venturing out into our backyard aka our solar system. My hope is that any beings who develop the ability to leave their backyard and travel beyond their solar system will by that time be mature enough not to have any malign designs on others.

[Zac]

Definitely an interesting article. I've had quite a few conversations with people talking about this topic, and things like the voyager spacecrafts, it's just an amazing thing to theorize about. I also like the comparisons and analogies used by the author here.

[Hand of Ra]

Hawking is right.

A human might play with an ant hill with no malicious intent, I doubt the ants would see it that way.

[hahaha]

Steven Hawking our generations Einstein? ...Yikes. Statements like that are very telling. It makes it hard to take anything else in the article when you start like that.

[Cosmogeist]

Posted by: Zac | July 14, 2009 at 12:01 AM
Hawking is right.

A human might play with an ant hill with no malicious intent, I doubt the ants would see it that way.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Most definitely. As another note, I'm curious to know how long we'll keep this absurd notion that only the "peaceful" sociologically evolved beings are the ones that make it into space and travel the stars. Because the day that we and if we finally do, are we to believe we will have evolved so far as well? Consider the exponential march of technological advances on our own planet vs the ethical/moral/sociological advances and you'll see that the drive to take that step and exploit anything in our way beats out all other drives because it ensures our survival whether immoral or unethical. It's not a wonder why our advances usually come via the military application first vs the civillian application. And it would be fairly easy to de-humanize our alien bretheran to propagate a war espeically with a false flag beginning. Such things will never change and the scientists that say otherwise dream dream dream idealistically in their ivory towers while the march of life and death and more death continues on around them in what we call reality.

[Hand of Ra]

Well, Cosmo, twasn't "Zac" that you quoted but I'll attribute it to a weak comment system that puts the names under the posts.

There may be many bullies in the playground of the stars and at our tender age mankind would do well not to get noticed by them...

They may want more than our lunch money. :D :D

[John Davis]

Well, seeing as Steven Hawking is the smartest man on the planet, I would heed his warning!

RT
www.anonymize.us.tc

[Simon]

You havn't actually made an argument for why we need to contact them, other then that it might result in advancement. Nor have you really torn apart the other sides points, you've really just said you could. But it's a bit irrelevent really. Things that are alien are pretty much by definition difficult for us as a species to understand. Until we have some idea of what we would do if we got a reply, or some idea of what a species other then our own might do when they receive our signal, sending one out is foolish. We simply don't know - hiding under a rock isn't the answer, but neither is shining a spot light at us - how about we wait a bit. Whats maybe most annoying is that the people that have sent them are doing this on their own. The arrogance of sending a message with consequences for all of humanity without so much as a UN vote is frankly the scariest bit here.

Incidentally - (and do have a degree in physics) I sincerely doubt that any species not substantially more advanced then us will be able to detect non-directional radio signals. It really isn't a done deal that we've already wasted the chance to stay quiet - the immediate neighbor hood can hear us, but the drake equation would suggest that theres a very small chance of somone next door to hear us.

[Mr Rodgers]

@ Jason: Whos to say that these aliens are anything like humans? Perhaps they see war as a way of life. Just because wanting peace is a very human thing, could wanting war be something the aliens would do?
@Hahaha: you are correct. Weapons and war do advance technology much faster than peace. But thats for us. While it is likely that ETs are the same in this respect, could they not be different? And whos to say that we wont just discover one ET species? Why not several? And it's quite likely that they will have had some negative contact beforehand. Thus, I think it's best just to advance in quiet, and listen, and obserb. And if ET comes with his big brother, we can just nuke'em outta the sky!

[Mr Rodgers]

And then again, whos to say that we'll discover them, as opposed to them discovering us?

[Alvis Brigis]

Evolve and develop or face the prospect of galactic/universal/cosmological commoditization. Essentially an expanded version of Bostrom's argument that individual organisms may want to act as originally/novel-ly as possible in order to advance their copy past this sim...

[Joe OConnor]

>You havn't actually made an argument for why we need to contact them...

The argument is simple, and should be both obvious and extraordinarily compelling:

Is our civilization more likely to survive and prosper in the next few years and decades by ignoring any possibility of learning about the experiences of other evolving technological civilizations in the Universe?

Whatever you think or believe about the UFO phenomenon--including that it's complete nonsense--any reasonable scientist would acknowledge at least the possibility that another intelligence has been observing and, in a limited way, interacting with our civilization for many years.

One of the simplest and most familiar speculative explanations for UFOs is that advanced space-faring races are observing our world in preparation for possible eventual open contact: they've made their presence bluntly known to governments around the world, and very carefully to millions of people, to avoid causing panic; they have knowledge of the experiences of countless evolving technological civilizations and understand our civilization better than we do; they know that, for various reasons, no government will yet acknowledge their presence (despite limited releases of 'UFO files' by a few governments); they know that scientists have, for whatever reasons, in effect if not in fact, joined with governments to ridicule the notion of an ET presence, and are still discussing the Fermi 'Paradox', and asking 'Where are they?', and 'Is METI dangerous?', etc.; they know that even a simple acknowledgment of their presence by the governments will be difficult for us, and that learning the facts of life in the Universe will be the most difficult experience--or perhaps the second most difficult experience--in the history of our civilization. And so they're waiting for us to take responsibility for initiating the process, and to take the next step--for one or more governments, or the United Nations, to acknowledge their presence, and ask them who they are and why they're here.

Would the governments welcome an open message to the human race from the ETs--undeniable proof of the presence of an ETI? For now, of course, the answer is not just 'NO', but '(Bleep) NO'. Scientists who doubt this might consider the simple thought experiment of asking their space agency (e.g., NASA) or foreign office (e.g., US State Department). Better yet, why not actually pose an open question to NASA: Would the US Government welcome such a message? If not, why not?

Would the scientists and scientific institutions and organizations of our world welcome such a message from the ETs? Indeed, can they even openly discuss this question? If not, why not?

We can't know whether contact might at one extreme, be a disaster for humankind, and perhaps itself an existential risk for our civilization; or whether, at the other extreme, however difficult, it might be our best or perhaps only hope for survival. But the ETs might know, with reasonable certainty, whether we're more likely to survive and prosper by beginning a conversation with them now.

So, considering the original question, shouldn't our civilization be asking ETs who might already be here, monitoring our TV and Internet communications, a simple question? For example: If you have something to say to us--something that years or a few decades from now, we're likely to desperately wish we had heard now--then say it now.

Maybe they'll talk to us, and have something important to say--or not. But why aren't we asking this question?

What percentage of civilizations who accumulated vast arsenals of nuclear weapons survived to join the space-faring races of the Universe? Is Global Warming really occurring, and if so, what's causing it, and what are the likely consequences? How many civilizations survived the dangers of genetic engineering, synthetic life, and replicant nanotechnology? How many survived the creation of super-intelligent cybernetics? Indeed, what is the relationship between 'biological' and 'cybernetic' intelligence in the Universe? From the perspective of the ETs, if we continue on our current path, is the likelihood that our civilization will survive the next few decades about 96 percent? 53 percent? Or is it closer to 2.7 percent?

Are the planets of the Universe littered with the ruins of civilizations whose governments and scientists believed that ignoring any possibility of learning the mistakes of past civilizations was their best hope to avoid repeating them?

[Simon]

Joe OConnor:
It seems to me that you are convinced aliens are visiting us. If that is the case(and I tend to side with thinking it is not, although I don't say that is at all definitive), then they have chosen NOT to contact is unequivically. They have chosen to act reasonably quietly, and essentially just done their own thing. Any communications with governments and individuals has effectivly been private, and anything to anyone else isn't believable in practice. Any species sophisticated enough to travel here, is sophisticated enough to know they arn't getting through - leaving one possibility remaining: They don't want you to hear them. They might be watching, or maybe they're just passing through - frankly it doesn't matter. If they thought there was something we should know and they felt comfortable telling us, then surely they would have by now. Communication is at their behest, not ours. Incidently, the fundemental point I made is that waiting is best. You don't need to be an extraterestrial to know that we need to figure out global warming. War. Poverty. Hate. These arn't things they can do for us. Infact, with Prince Charles telling the world we have 8 years to figure it out, maybe it's best they don't bother us now - we really have more important things to worry about without riots around the world. The second point I made is that any communication made should come from humanity as a whole, and I still think thats true. What it should NOT come from is individual groups of humans sending of whatever message they feel like.

[dirk alan]

i want a couple of those hot klingon chicks to rough me up.

[hahaha]

"Well, seeing as Steven Hawking is the smartest man on the planet, I would heed his warning!"

Facepalm.

[Trev]

Its all cool so long as no-damned bug tries to steal our women.

[Francis Kingz]

Stephen Hawking is a brilliant mathematician and a great example of how force of will can overcome a physical disability. This does not make him an expert on possible intelligent aliens. Actually no one is.

The Columbus vs native americans is not a valid argument. The difference between the europeans and the native americans was very minimal. Compared with the difference between us and an alien intelligent civilization the difference was completely nonexistent.

The europeans were in direct competition with the native americans and coveted their gold, land, spices, women, etc.... An alien race that had the technology to physically contact us would not be in competition with us for anything. Water? Abundant in the universe. Metals? Easier to harvest from asteroids. Hydrocarbons? If Titan is covered with them then other planets throughout the universe are. Food source? I don't think we are tasty enough to travel across light years just for a snack, although Malin Akerman may be an exception. Slave labor? Robots work harder, don't form unions and don't complain.

And who can say that we have the time to wait for the human race to evolve? The advantages of contact with an advanced alien race would, I think, always outweigh the disadvantages. Right now if it was discovered that an asteroid or comet was on a collision course with the earth there is nothing we could do except watch it. An accidental nuclear war could wipe out all civilization. Manmade plagues could put us back in the stone age.

We are much more of a threat to ourselves than any alien civiliztion would be. If nothing else contact with aliens would hopefully help unite us. Maybe it would also give us some perspective and humility.

Just a quick opinion.

[Kyanzes]

Too late humans! It's high time you paid for Dallas! At first we thought it was a coded message, and spent a year's worth of the IT output of the planet Woweksijfijwoeijgwoig only to find that Dallas was nothing more than a scheme to distract our resources. The end is here!

[Mr Rodgers]

@ francis kings: Just because we have no special resources doesnt mean they wont come here and kill us. Why do we stomp on ants?'Cause we can!

[DJ]

What a stupid, arrogant article. You can't make assumptions about aliens, that's why they are called aliens. There could be a horde of asteroid-slinging self-replicating robots that carpet bomb any radio-emitting planet they detect. Maybe that's the solution to the fermi paradox. There could be a group of cosmic Jehovah's witnesses that convert or kill anyone else they meet. There could be a species that only knows warfare and literally cannot concieve of not conquering any rivals.You just don't know.
And the "it probably won't work so there's no harm in trying" line is pretty weak. The probability of it working says nothing about the potential harm in trying, that's just basic logic.

There is also a world of difference in signal intensity between a unidirectional signal specifically pointed at a likely target and random, weak, omnidirectional radio noise. So your TV defense doesn't work either.

Such arrogance that some short sighted people think they have the right to take such a risk on behalf of us all.

[neoconstantine]

The main problem is the distance. Enormous distance from Earth to some Exo-Planet. We don't know the habitants of this planet (even they have more advanced technology) are able to overcome the huge distances; more – we can’t be sure for e reason of these distances they have been living yet.
Conclusion – I don’t exclude the possibility to exist other civilizations but I think the contact with them can be very difficult.

[Joe]

What if aliens enslaves human race ? Or use us for their laboratory testing ?