"AI to Surpass Human Intelligence By 2020" -Says SciFi Great
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June 12, 2009

"AI to Surpass Human Intelligence By 2020" -Says SciFi Great

Artificial_intelligence Artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence after 2020, predicts Vernor Vinge, a world-renowned pioneer in AI, who has warned about the risks and opportunities that an electronic super-intelligence would offer to mankind.

Exactly 10 years ago, in May 1997, Deep Blue won the chess tournament against Gary Kasparov. "Was that the first glimpse of a new kind of intelligence?" Vinge was asked in an interview with Computerworld.

"I think there was clever programming in Deep Blue," Vinge stated in the interview, "but the predictable success came mainly from the ongoing trends in computer hardware improvement. The result was a better-than-human performance in a single, limited problem area. In the future, I think that improvements in both software and hardware will bring success in other intellectual domains."

"It seems plausible that with technology we can, in the fairly near future," Vinge continued, create (or become) creatures who surpass humans in every intellectual and creative dimension. Events beyond such an event -- such a singularity -- are as unimaginable to us as opera is to a flatworm."

Vinge is a retired San Diego State University professor of mathematics, computer scientist, and science fiction author who is well-known for his 1993 manifesto, "The Coming Technological Singularity, in which he argues that exponential growth in technology means a point will be reached where the consequences are unknown.

He is best known for Rainbows End, awarded the 2007 Hugo Award for Best Novel. The book is set in San Diego in 2025, in a variation of the fictional world Vinge explored in his 2002 Hugo-winning novella "Fast Times at Fairmont High." His Hugo Award-winning novel A Fire Upon the Deep, envisions a galaxy that is divided up into 'zones of thought', in which the further one moves from the center of the galaxy, the higher the level of technology one can achieve.

Posted by Casey Kazan.

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Prior Posts:

Robots Rising -Scientists are Worried

Google Leaping to an AI Future

What do Robots Dream of?

Coming Age of Robots

Comments

The title's claim is not supported by the article.

Lol, they claimed this twenty years ago. They will claim it again after twenty years. AI will never reach the complexity of the human mind simply because the human mind is still, and will be, a complete mystery to itself.

Hard to believe since there is still NO such thing as AI, just clever programming. Don't underestimate something like consciousness, which we take for granted.

hahahahahahaha!!! As has already been stated, this stupid claim is made by so called "experts" every decade or so going back at least as far as the 50's.

What would have made this article would be to highlight all of the past claims and the dates that super intelligent computers would rule us all.

Casey Kazan, are you 12 years old? It is OK to be 12, because you have never heard these idiotic claims before. If you are 30 then you have had your head where the sun don't shine for decades, and have missed these stupid and entertaining claims.

Wow!! They should start programming all the three laws of robotics into all the computers before they take over the world!!

OMGosh dude, no way. That is soo cool!

RT
www.privacy.alturl.com

"AI to Surpass Human Intelligence By 2020"? I ask you a sample question. Do you think machine writes a program of its own, drive a car, and substitute a role of father say in very simple family?

Maybe in 2020 a computer will be smarter than Vinge, but I doubt a computer would even be self-aware by then.

I wonder if computers will develop personalities?

www.makeyourownpheromones.com

Nuh uh, not going to happen, they just want research dollars.

Even if you had a brain as good as ours, which wont happen, you need a body to go with it so the android can learn as we do, by degrees. you cant program this stuff.



to boybunny;
obliviously you don't have a clue on what you're talking about. By 2020 we most certainly will have brain scanners that could map every atom in a human brain. Now, if you agree with this (and there's no reason not to, because efficiency of such instruments is increasing every year thus it is a well established trend) and do not see how from this point with reverse engineering you could theoretically build a brain replica, then you are, in fact, a moron...

Me and a lot of other people are working on having AI surpass human-level intelligence a lot earlier than the year 2020. First we create a simple, thinking AI (already done); then we work towards recursive self-enhancement (RSE) on the part of the AI Mind. The RSE leads not only to a brief time of _merely_ human-level-intelligence and then to a veritable eternity of SuperIntelligence.

The story has some fallacies. Brain does not have the entire depositary of human capabilities. His intellect, mind and wisdom lies in the totality of his personality. As one comment mentioned that there is the ' consciousness ' to consider too, a non-physical parameter that is not yet approachable in science. The life-force/ human spirit holds many mysteries yet uncovered. Artificial intelligence is a mere restricted field of human activity that involves its status due to the technological advances man has made in software and hardware of electronic computers. Then, there is an innovation under development called Quantum/optical computers. They have an edge over electronic computers of today. But mind you all, it has all come out as a result of human endevour and ingenuity. Thus, such predictions like AI taking over humans in the next decade or so are purely speculative imagination of a few technologists who forget that they are first human beings and only later a professionalist of one or the other sort!!

I have had a look at A. T. Murray's site:
"Artificial intelligence in Forth and JavaScript"
Mwahahahahah! Why not in Visual Basic?
The rest of the pages is a load of pompous gibberish. It must be a joke.

@Boldrix: even though we were able to scan the entire brain, it would be like dumping the memory of a computer: it doesn't tell you how it works. That would be loads of terabytes that you still have to interpret. Do we only have a valid model of the neuron today? Not sure.

If you want AI to surpass Human Intelligence so you must, as the Homo Sapiens Sapiens, (do we have to remember that we are still evolving?) program a machine which could "think", that is the first thing to do, secondly, it has to "know" that it is able to think, and then from "it" is born "he", right?
I don't think a program wouldn't crash with such a complexity.

The day i cry reading something written by a machine, that day i will say AI surpassed Human Intelligence.

(was it understandable?)

I am quite surprised by the comments on this articles.

Drive a car? Personality? What the heck does this have to do with intelligence?

We can't program this stuff?

Consciousness a non-physical parameter? Comon! Not understanding the global effect of all the algorithms of a system does not make it non-physical.

It is so easy to say that because we don't (yet) understand consciousness we will never surpass it. Sounds quire religious to me.

For me, it is clear that wet intelligence is only the first form of intelligence on this planet. The next one will clearly be silicon-based. Is it so difficult to let go of our arrogant perspective that because we don't understant how our own brain work that another type of intelligence cannot emerge from it?

From my perspective, I think that the problem we are facing now (economics, environment, energy, health, etc) can only be solved with the aid of AI. I think the complexity of the global situation we are currently in greatly surpasses the human intellect and the only way to deal with it is with the aid of silicon-based intelligence. And, btw, we are already heavily dependant on computer-assisted operations to design and create a good deal of our daily machines. It is just another step for computer-assisted politics, or computer-assisted economy, etc.

I don't know if in 20 years, a typical AI system will surpass the average humain, but I think that the average human will more and more get AI-assisted within the next 20 years. And maybe it will be quite difficult differenciating the AI part from the human part of our lives by then.

just my two cents.

- Mazz

I agree with Mazz - everything that exists is physical and AI will achieve if not surpass human intelligence in a short time.
The so-called problem of consciousness will be solved within the year and AI will no longer be a problem. It is imply a matter of getting out heads around ourselves.

Comments by Oannes and Mazzaroth above show lack of knowledge that science can do everything for us eventually, including the claim that problem of 'consciousness' will get solved scientifically within 'an year'. A simple question what existed before the Big bang that gave rise to the universe creation and its subsequent logical evolution pattern, are not answered in sciences. Science only can explain how things are happening in the universe and not 'WHYS'. Thus, just like soul or life force that keeps a body alive, consciousness is another term we all use but its is beyond science in its totality.
Science is a professional activity of humans like many others. It was born out of the mixture of curiousity , logic and rationality , as philosophy gave birth to it gradually. Emotional aspects of human behaviour are being explained through a detailed study of brain activity scientifically, but can we hope that our behaiours will be understood in full scientifically. Science deals with relative truths and as we progress we get better and better relative information. But we can never reach the absolute truth. That lies with the Creator of the Universe. Science & technology has already created lots of problems for the humanity today the world over, as we forgot to look at the human aspect in applying science through technology. It is time we deal with such questions in a wholesome manner and with an open mind. Many a things lie outside the domain of science, as science and humans have not created even an iota of this universe of ours. It continues to hold untold mysteries for us to follow in ages to come, without reaching finality.Do we know what is 'mind' and how it is different from the 'brain'?
There is nothing i desire to say to hurt the feelings of the critics named here, as i am myself a career Physicist who have been successful and productive in the profession for over 40 years of my life and have lived in many countries of the world, with excellent human realtions with my hosts everywhere. i have learnt to be unbiased and develop freedom of thought in order to be creative in science, not to have narrow options which limit our capacity to view and examine the universe and humanity in totality. My loving greetings for the criticism offered by the learned gentlemen.

A vast misubderstanding about the nature of intelligence. Intellience in the human brain is the byproduct of the interactions of some millions of neurons, each an independent living organism. At the micro level, as it pertains to one cell, the brain is not intelligent, nor could a single cell recognizeit as such. At a very macro level, where we see miilions of humans all at once. the human mind is neither intellignet, but a simple organism as we can predict the tendency of the mass of humanity and the variation in behavior attributable to intelligence is not visible.

Many other systems. both biological and mechanical, exhibit these same characteristics of intelligence and consciousness, but they are at levels which we as single humans don't recognize. Our ancestors saw intelligence for example in a forest; which they named Nyads or Dryads. We now can measure that a forest is not unlike a field of neurons with a lot of individual cells interacting in a complex set of communications. So this is an example of an intelligent, conscious, soul-possessing system that most humans in their bound subjectiveness simply just can't recognize. Intelligence and consciousness is the general rule of the universe, not the exception. There are intelligent system everywhere; they are different enough either in the speed of thought processing or scale that humans don't recognize them in the modern day (though the ancients named and recognized many of these intelligent systems).

So what does it mean to say computers will mimic God in the way humans mimic God? It is an obvious truth - moreover what doesn't mimic God and has It's nature reflected in it? All of creation is embued with levels and sub-levels of intelligence and consciousness. A field of daisies responding to pollinating mosquitoes has some characteristics of intelligence and communication. A washing machine has a much smaller amount of this. The collective interactions of the 6 billion humans on earth operates with a crude intelligence and instincts of self-preservation.

I think the remarkable thing is how this guy doesn't even recognize the obvious intelligences that exist all around him, and do we trust him to recognize it in computers?

Wow, looks like the monkeys have got smarter and an infinite number of them are going to finish typing out Shakespeare's works by 2020! Brilliant.

sharn cedar,

you have put into words what i have been discussing with my roommate for some time.
and you did a good job of it. kudos to you.

i'm pretty sure there is an article out about consciousness in mold.

and ultimately, in some sense, the universe is just a vast multidimensional painting, varying in all possible qualities.

variation, interaction, information.
everything is but a holographic system that scales infinitely in all dimensions.
at any level there is some level of what we call "consciousness"

perhaps ultimately, the universe in its totality is consciousness. you can call that god. just as good in my opinion.

I believe this may happen...looking forward to see how this all plays out in the end...Seb-


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