The METI Controversy Pro & Con: Is Detection by an Exo Civilization a Threat to Earth?

Mankind has always been driven by contradictory drives.  The relentless curiosity that pushes us forward and is directly responsible for our progress from caves to  cities.  The fear of change that tells us "hang on, these caves/cities are really nice, we don't want to risk losing them."  There isn't any greater potential threat to the status quo than the discovery of extraterrestrial life, which is why some people would prefer we didn't try.

There has been some outrage recently over attempts to contact intelligent aliens, where instead of hiding in the corner and listening real hard some astronomers beamed intense directional messages up up and away.  Critics decried these actions as dangerous, though their fears reveal more about us than any eventual ETs.  They assume that they would be similar to humanity, so their first response to finding a more primitive culture would be to exploit the hell out of it.  While such a fate might be pleasingly ironic (for anyone who isn't human, at least), others contend that any species that can make the journey here has advanced to a point where their goals are rather higher-minded than "Shoot us".

Dr Alexander Zaitzev, of the Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics at the Russian Academy of Sciences, doesn't think much of these worries either way.  A proponent of METI (Messaging to Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence), in a recent paper he shows that the odds of one of the METI messages being detected is a millionth of that due to powerful radar pulses regularly used in astronomical investigation.  Though whether writing a paper saying "This METI thing we're doing has only a tiny chance of working" is overall a good idea remains to be seen.  An important point is that METI represents an intentional will to make contact, rather than the accidental alien interception of some random radiation from Earth - the difference between saying "Hello!" and just being a suspicious strange noise late at night.

Most of the objections to contacting aliens are weak under close examination.  We can't suddenly decide to hide after fifty years of pumping electromagnetic radiation into space without rhyme or reason - in fact, we'd better hope that an advanced civilization doesn't catch an episode of "American Idol" and just vaporize us outright.  Suddenly keeping quiet would be like a drunk boyfriend carefully taking off his shoes after knocking over a bookshelf on his way to the bedroom.

Then there's the assumption that aliens would have the same kind of technology we do - despite the extremely obvious fact that our technology can't actually get to other planets.  Any attempt to mask radio emissions will likely look like cavemen closing their eyes to hide from satellite imaging.

The simple fact is that certain people have always opposed progress while other, better people have driven it.  "Experts" decried boiled water as unhealthy compared the vital stuff straight from the river, cursed antibiotics as a temporary placebo, and confidently declared that computers were nothing but expensive toys.  As an intelligent species we must make every effort to contact anyone or thing we can - and if you don't like it, there are some lovely caves you can move back to.

Reposted by Luke McKinney.

Detection Probability Calculation

Here's one of the more controversial replies to Luke McKinney's  post:


For decades the scientists of our world have rejected and ridiculed claims of psychic phenomena and the UFO/ET presence, often characterizing the researchers in these areas as "pseudoscientists". This ridicule has very effectively suppressed research into the fundamental nature of consciousness and reality, and the facts of life in the Universe. Is it possible that knowledge of these matters is vital not only to our well-being, but the survival of our civilization in the coming years and decades?

We already know from Remote Viewing (RV) and Random Event Generator (REG) experiments, and decades of other research into psychic phenomena, that human consciousness transcends what we experience as space and time, and can directly affect what we experience as physical reality, i.e., matter and energy. Human psychic abilities are normally minimal--necessarily so, or our reality could not survive the effects of our chaotic and destructive thoughts--and psychic phenomena are not as significant per se, as they are as 'glitches in the matrix'--hints of the underlying nature of our reality.

A better understanding of these phenomena, combined with efforts to reconcile research into Near Death Experiences, reincarnation (e.g., past-life memories of small children), mediums, faith and energy healing, various interpretations of quantum mechanics and consciousness, and religious, spiritual, and mystical beliefs could lead to an extraordinary new understanding of the nature of our existence, and a dramatic change in the attitudes and consciousness of humankind. Such a change would not only affect our choices and actions, and our sense of well-being, but if our thoughts, intentions, prayers, beliefs, and expectations, even if primarily at some level much deeper than our normal consciousness, are creating or even slightly influencing our reality (or selecting versions of a multiverse), then the consciousness and spirituality of a race could be a critical factor in determining the fate of their civilization.

Elements of the US Government thoroughly understand the facts (but not the physics or metaphysics) of basic psychic phenomena, and should understand the potential national security implications of advanced research in this area for other than military and intelligence uses, and perhaps will consider not only funding such research, but promoting a public understanding of the findings. If human thoughts (intentions, prayers, beliefs, expectations, etc.) can influence a REG, what are the effects of human thoughts (etc.), whether by individuals or groups, directed not to a single REG, but rather to the entire world or Universe, over long periods of time, and with respect not simply to changing a number, but rather to more general outcomes?

The skeptics who are truly curious might look at the RV and REG research, or take an RV course, or buy a REG and do some simple experiments, or review the latest medium research, etc. The 'pseudoskeptics' can simply ignore the issue of consciousness for now, but they won't be able to understand the UFO/ET situation, or one of the major implications of contact. Any advanced technological civilization visiting our world (and their 'technology') will have not only a vastly greater understanding of physics, but of metaphysics and consciousness as well, and they will certainly be using this knowledge for their purposes here, in ways that most humans cannot imagine, much less understand.

Humans have long interacted with strange beings from countless other realms, such as angels, fairies, ghosts, etc. These interactions sometimes have profound, even life-changing, psychological and even physical effects on those who encounter them. The 'alien abductors', e.g., and other strange beings sometimes associated with UFOs, whatever their nature, and whatever their relationship, if any, to the advanced 'biological' and/or 'cybernetic' ETs in UFOs, are certainly of scientific interest, and to the extent they are a problem, we should try to understand and deal with them accordingly, as a function of our consciousness rather than as nominal 'physical' life forms. But none of them have the persistent presence or competence in our consensus physical reality to understand, much less to discuss in detail, the extraordinarily complex issues faced by our civilization.

On the other hand, at least some of the ETs in UFOs--whatever the nature of their consciousness, however physically 'real' they might seem in-person, and wherever they come from in space or time or beyond--clearly have the competence to interact intelligently with our technology. And some may have not only the cultural and linguistic fluency to discuss complex social, technological, and scientific issues, but also the knowledge of the experiences of other rapidly evolving technological civilizations--knowledge that might be critically important to our civilization. If we asked, would they tell us the story of life in the Universe?

For decades the ETs have been making their presence known, dramatically to the US and other governments, and very carefully to people around the world--tens of thousands of carefully limited appearances, day after day, year after year, for over sixty years. They've bluntly conveyed, in deeds and perhaps in words, their concerns about nuclear weapons to the US and other governments, and they've clearly demonstrated they have the means to disable or destroy our weapons systems, and thus any or all aspects of our technological civilization. Yet whatever the loss of life on both sides due to accidents or hostility, they have refrained from any major actions which would terrorize or seriously disrupt our civilization. For over sixty years life on earth has continued as usual: wars, revolutions, terrorism, elections, continued destruction of the environment, accumulation of vast nuclear arsenals capable of destroying our civilization, amazing technological progress, moon landings, visits by robotic explorers to other planets of the solar system, SETI, endless discussions of the Fermi Paradox and Drake Equation, attempts by the US, et al., to shoot down UFOs, and more.

The USG has used denial, ridicule, disinformation, harassment and intimidation, manipulation of the media, and more to prevent the American people from knowing the facts of the ET presence. This policy has been supported, wittingly or unwittingly, by every US president, and every US Congress since 1947; with a few exceptions, by scientists, scientific institutions, organizations, and universities, and major news organizations; and by the governments of our world, and the UN. Despite the limited releases of information recently by the UK and France, et al., and years ago in the US Blue Book files, etc., no government will directly state what they have long known.

There are many interpretations of the ET agenda, some 'positive', and some extremely 'negative', but one of the simplest consistent with publicly available information, is that they're monitoring an emerging technological civilization, in preparation for possible eventual open 'contact'. There are many possible criteria for determining when a civilization is ready for contact, but the simplest is: a civilization is ready when the government and/or the people say they're ready.

It's obvious from the continuing efforts of the ETs to carefully make their presence known that they have something important to say to the people of our world, not just to the governments. There are two reasons why the ETs would have thus far deferred to our wishes, and why efforts such as IETI (Invitation to Extraterrestrial Intelligence) have failed to initiate open contact between civilizations. The first is that the ETs understand that a dramatic and unexpected appearance could cause enormous problems on the Earth--even if largely as a result of malicious or incompetent actions of governments and other groups--and they have a 'moral' or 'legal' responsibility for the consequences of their actions (i.e., 'You break it, you own it'). And, as a practical matter, they don't want to have to manage a collapsing civilization of hysterical primitives. Secondly, if they are hoping to establish a long-term, cooperative relationship, then they don't want to begin the relationship by doing something that might cause enormous harm to, or at the very least infuriate, most of the human race. This would further imply that they would not assist one group or nation at the expense of another.

Even if they are willing to help, with information, or perhaps under some circumstances, even with technology, their experience has certainly shown that you can't help a civilization that doesn't want to be helped. And until the governments acknowledge their presence, and we begin serious, open discussions of the implications of contact, the ETs may simply continue the pattern of 'deniable' appearances. Or perhaps they'll make their presence known tomorrow, regardless of our wishes...

Should we ask them who they are, and why they're here? Should we ask them about life in the Universe, and the experiences--and perhaps the apocalyptic mistakes--of other rapidly evolving 'pre-Singularity' civilizations? From their perspective, do we have bright future of peace, freedom, and prosperity? Or something very different? Is it possible that civilizations which reach our stage of technological development, but are still so hysterical and irrational that they would rather die than know the truth will often get their wish?

Even the certain knowledge of an ET presence, without any real contact, would be difficult for our civilization; and contact and the consequences will likely be the most difficult experience in human history. What if we learned that the institutions, technological infrastructure, attitudes, beliefs, and consciousness of our civilization are simply incompatible with the harm we have already done, and continue to do to the planet, and the dangerous technologies we already have, and those we will soon develop? Would it be worth the effort to survive?

The position of the US and other governments of our world is that the expected costs of acknowledgment, which would naturally lead to discussions of contact, outweigh the expected benefits of contact. For better or worse, this implies that the governments of the US, UK, France, etc., and the UN, regard the extreme worst case outcome of this policy as acceptable, i.e., even if the survival of our civilization might depend on information that the ETs would be willing to provide, that the cost of survival would not be worth the 'benefit'.

It might seem reasonable for governments, scientists, and the news media, etc., to believe that contact--or even acknowledgment of an ET presence--is an unacceptable risk to our civilization, and the delusion must be perpetuated, and thus no discussion of the ET presence is acceptable. Some might argue that the USG and other governments already know the whole story of life in the Universe, and all the lessons to be learned from past civilizations, and have quite reasonably decided to keep the information secret, and that scientists and the news media should respect their decision, and actively or passively support the coverup. In fact, whatever MAJIC (or whatever the USG UFO Control group is called) and perhaps elements of a few other governments might know, the current financial crisis, and other experiences and unaddressed critical vulnerabilities of our civilization show that the government(s) don't even understand the lessons to be learned from our own history, much less the history of the Universe.

Is it possible that the policies of the world's governments, and thus the attitudes of the scientists and news media, are based on a flawed intelligence assessment regarding the long term costs and benefits of acknowledgment and efforts to contact the ETs? If the ETs have been dealing with evolving technological civilizations for eons, and not only understand our civilization better than we do, but also understand the experiences of countless other civilizations, they should be able to first answer a simple question: Do you have something to say to us, that, based on the experiences of other civilizations, years from now we'll likely desperately wish we had heard now?

Of course, they might not reply, or tell us anything useful, and we might not trust them, and what they tell us might be unbearable, etc. But why aren't the scientists and others who claim to be concerned about the future of humankind discussing whether, as a civilization, we should be asking the ETs this question?

Of course the UFO skeptics, and others, might ask "Why should we waste our time discussing this issue?" and repeat the absurd argument: "There's no evidence that ETs are visiting our world! The governments aren't hiding anything! Give us evidence! We want evidence!"

Actually, the publicly available evidence, if separated from the mountains of nonsense and disinformation, shows beyond a reasonable doubt of any rational person that another intelligence is visiting our world. But, the skeptics want 'extraordinary proof' to justify the 'extraordinary claim' of an ET presence.

If the governments won't provide the evidence, perhaps the ETs are monitoring our communications and would be happy to provide 'extraordinary proof'. Would skeptics welcome undeniable proof that ETs are visiting our world--an optical message or appearance that could be seen and documented by millions of people? The skeptics don't have to say they believe ETs are here--indeed, they can ridicule the notion--but rather, simply say that if ETs are here, that we'd like to hear from them. In other words, do the skeptics really want evidence, or are they simply--for whatever reasons--supporting the governments' policies of suppressing the truth?

Would an open invitation from the SETI Institute be sufficient to convince the ETs to make an undeniable--or significantly less-deniable--demonstration of their presence? Not likely, since the Institute doesn't speak for the USG, but surely this would be an important statement of principle: the SETI Institute, openly and vocally skeptical about UFOs and ETs, would surely welcome a message from ETs 25 light years away; but would the Institute welcome an open and public message from ETs 25 miles away? If not, why not?

Would an open invitation from NASA be sufficient to convince the ETs to make an undeniable demonstration of their presence? Such an invitation would make it clear to the ETs that the government, acting on behalf of the people of one nation are ready to acknowledge--and begin open discussions of the implications of--the ET presence. The news media could ask a NASA spokesperson; or perhaps Larry King, e.g., could invite UFO researchers, and spokespersons from NASA and the SETI Institute, and ask them this question. Or anyone (skeptics, UFO researchers, and perhaps even ETs) can contact the NASA experts on UFOs and ETs at NASA's "Ask an Astrobiologist" site. Of course NASA has repeatedly assured the public that there's absolutely no evidence that ETs are visiting our world... So, speaking for the government and people of the US, would NASA welcome an open and public message to the American people from any ETs who might be visiting our world? If not, why not?

Or perhaps the ETs are waiting for a statement, not from one nation, but from most or all of the nations of the world... This year astronomers and others around the world will celebrate the 2009 International Year of Astronomy, and the 400th anniversary of Galileo's first astronomical observations with a telescope. What a perfect occasion to celebrate the purpose and faith of the institution of science in general, and astronomy in particular, and take what might be the first step to one of the greatest scientific 'discoveries' of all time... Or not. Would the cosponsors of the IYA--UNESCO, representing the governments of the world, and IAU, representing the astronomers of the world--welcome an open and public message from any ETs who might be visiting our world? If not, why not? Is it possible that in the matter of UFOs and ETs, the scientists, while they celebrate Galileo, are actually honoring--in a much 'kinder and gentler' career-destroying way of course--the faith in ignorance of those who persecuted the early astronomers? Of course, the Inquisitors no doubt had what they considered to be good reasons, and the scientists certainly have theirs.

Even as a thought experiment, the likely answers might help any honest skeptic understand the situation. And if the news media would actually ask these questions of the SETI Institute, NASA, IYA, and UNESCO, and some of the world's leading scientists, etc., then the answers would be profound statements of the nature and faith of the human race at this point in our history.

And any reasonable person would understand that there is no 'UFO Debate', and indeed, there never was, except between and among UFO researchers. And any reasonable scientist would understand that there is no Fermi 'Paradox' and never was--only a question to which elements of the US Government already knew the answer. And they would know what the ETs know: as long as the governments, scientists, and news media stand together in promoting this delusion, then humankind is not ready to hear what the ETs have to say to us.

Perhaps some of the scientists and others concerned with the continued destruction of our living planet, global warming, nuclear weapons, genetic engineering, synthetic life, replicant nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence, etc., will reconsider: Do you really believe our civilization is more likely to survive and prosper by ignoring any possibility of learning about life in the Universe, and the experiences of other rapidly evolving technological civilizations?

Because of the extreme secrecy and remarkably effective disinformation campaign, etc., it's impossible for the public to know what the various ET groups intend, what the USG knows, and what the USG regards as the most serious problems arising from various degrees of contact (ranging from acknowledgment to open, unrestricted communications). Any so it's impossible for those interested in this issue, except in a highly speculative and thus largely useless way, to comment on the reasons for the continuing secrecy. Perhaps MAJIC will reconsider its longstanding policy, and make the basic facts available to a larger audience in the USG, or even to the public, and invite comment on the most critical aspects of this issue. Even the national security elements of the USG should be able to understand the risks of a 'Really Big Intelligence Failure' with respect to the technological, environmental, and other issues the US will face in the next few years and decades.

If President Obama and leaders of other nations truly want a world free of nuclear weapons, and since the ETs apparently likewise want a world free of nuclear weapons, perhaps the President will consider proposing an extraordinary deal: We do the hard part, and the ETs do what would for them be the easy part. For example: We negotiate an agreement among the nations of the world; and the ETs remove all nuclear weapons, significant quantities of fissionable materials, enrichment and reprocessing facilities, nuclear waste, and nuclear power plants; and they provide a watt-for-watt, safe and environmentally friendly technology--which we can manufacture--to replace our nuclear plants, and they provide their advanced capabilities for monitoring compliance, and addressing any threats from non-cooperating nations (if any). Impossible perhaps--they may not have the slightest interest in helping us, with information or technology--but isn't it worth asking? Of course, the decision to disclose what the USG knows about the ET presence, and an attempt to initiate contact (if USG is not already in contact with the ETs) might be the most difficult decision a US President has ever made. But there are more difficult decisions--which hopefully he will never have to make--given our huge arsenals of nuclear weapons, and the suicidal policy of 'Mutual Assured Destruction'.

If the United States cannot lead the world, then, in time, some other nation will. While a 'Message to ETs Visiting Our World' from Russia's already state-sanctioned Dr. Zaitsev, for example, or a state-sanctioned message from another nation, might have little practical significance, it would certainly be an enormously important and historic symbolic gesture--the first nation on earth to openly reach out to those visiting our world, and the dawn of a new era for humankind.

But for now, we'll be 'boldly going nowhere', our heads buried happily in the sands of blissful ignorance, trusting that our best hope for the future is to ignore any possibility of learning from the past. And we won't be reading "Seven Common Mistakes of Evolving Technological Civilizations--And How Your Civilization Can Avoid Them", or whatever it's called, or whether it even exists; but if it does exist, the good news is that if we screw up badly enough, we might merit a footnote in the revised edition. And we won't know whether contact, from the ETs' perspective, will likely mark--in some sense at least--the beginning of the end of our civilization, or simply the end of the beginning of the story of humankind. Or both.

Posted by ellipse1952

Related Galaxy posts:

Detecting Extraterrestrial Life -The "Man vs. Machine" Space-Exploration Debate
Babelfish -Universal Translator Will Allow ET to Speak English
The 1.5 Gigayear Technology Gap
Advanced Civilizations in the Universe -A Galaxy Insight
GAIA -Mapping the Family Tree of the Milky Way
The "Hubble Effect" -A Galaxy Insight
Stanley Kubrick & the Mythology of Extraterrestrial Life -A Galaxy Insight
"The Great Silence" -A Galaxy Insight
James Cameron & Arthur C Clarke on 2001 A Space Odyssey
New Technologies & the Search for Extraterrestrial Life -A Galaxy Insight
Lonely Hearts of the Cosmos Revisited -NASA's Phoenix Probe & the Search for
NASA's "New Worlds Observer" Will be Able to Spot Oceans, Continents and Clouds on Small Rocky Planets
MIT Asks: How Would Extraterrestrial Astronomers Study Earth?
"The Great Silence" -A Galaxy Insight
Harvard-Smithsonian Scientists Zero In On Key Sign of Habitable Worlds
Cruising the Goldilocks Zone -The Search for Super Earths
Dead Zones in the Search for Extraterrestrial Life

Comments

[nepharous]

To eclipse 1952,
Amen brother! Your response to the article is brilliant. I find it amazing on a daily basis that we humans can believe in a male god figure in the sky handing out midevil judgements (with no evidence at all) but we refuse to accept the mountain of evidence supporting the idea of et visitation. As soon as we as a species understand that the Universal 3-D reality we live in is plyable, amazing changes will occur. The Universe reacts to conscousness because it itself is aware. Our true spritual awakening rests on the acceptance that we (alien and Human) are a means by which the Universe expereinces itself. Subjective conscousness is an illusion. The Universe is learning objectivly through our subjective experiences. This is why I cannot believe in a "personal relationship" with God. It's conscousness and ours are the same thing. Maybe when this level of enlightenment is reached on a global scale the ET presence will be revealed. Spritually advanced beings would not war. Hence our non inclusion into the fellowship of galactic society so far.
Happy Landings
Nepharous

[Dave K]

When I read articles such as these , I am always filled with a sense of , of , well , almost anger!!
Why does it matter so much if there is life elsewhere in The Universe?
The fact is there IS life here, on this planet. We should concentrate on what we have , not what we think may exist.

We are collectively smart , but we seem to keep missing the point!!

[Nepharous]

Why does it matter so much? By asking this question with anger ( a form of ego gratification) you seem to miss the point as well. The answer lies before you. Life seeks out life to affirm its own existence. We can be both spiritually awake to the wonder of our own world and life in the Universe as well. Its all the same thing. The Universe is a medium in which intellegence arises. It is seeking to know itself. If we discover life in the Universe that is DNA compatable with ours it created one hell of a question. "Does life in this Universe come from an Intellegent Designer or is life a chance event?" Sir this is the point.
Nepharous

[Salahudin al-Rawandi]

I liked the news and thought this was a decent website devoted to science and its methodology and cosmological discovery, including SETI and even METI.

But the conspiracy theory section of this article was disappointing. It's an absolute divorce from the reasonable and rational.

It focuses on how the U.S government is hiding the "fact" that aliens are visiting us. This conspiracy theory is a fantasy of a few extremely ego-centric Americans, because alien visitation would be a global event but they seem to only see it through their nationalistic eyes.

Aliens seem to visit the world's only super power more than anywhere else? :P hilarious.

And of course the rest of the world's governments are also in on it eh?

Ridicule is what this deserves.

[Barrie O'Leary]

Fairies? On "Daily Galaxy?" Oh, how the site has fallen!!!
Nothing in preference to this tripe, thank you.

[Christian]

It is funny how we like to kill things, just blow them up, shot missles at them. The movie "The Day the Earth Stood Still" caught my attention. And yes I know its just a movie, but it reminds me of how we are. Always killing. Like in that movie how the military started shooting at that big robot thingy, even when the robot didnt even do anything to us but yet we try to kill it. Its also funny how they continued to try and kill it even when they realized who really was in control, not us. Plus i dont blame the robot guy( the neo guy). we are killing earth in some ways. The kind of life we have, we are lucky. Life is scarce out there in the universe. Its just funny how we killing each other everyday. But yet..we are still over populated. how is that?

[EvilCosmicMonkeyfrom Knoxville]

I think that the Search is our way of validating our existence.

The idea that extra - terrestrials are going to be either advanced, benign & / or God - like ( E.T., Starman, CE3K aliens, Vulcans ) or monstrous, power - hungry & warlike ( Original Cylons, Daleks, Cybermen, Visitors, original Klingons, Romulans, Wraith, Gou'ald, Replicators, ad - infinitum, note all the references from science fiction. ) plays to our greatest hopes & our greatest fears about the unknown.

Why can't extra - terrestrials be " Average Joes ", not particularly evil, nor overly benign & saintly ?

They might be as wary of our existence as we would be of theirs, if that makes sense.

[Dave K]

nepharous,

Still missing the point then?

Even if we find life 'out there'. So what? You can't interact with it.It won't change anything for any of us!
You can however , interact with those around you. You can change your life.
My point is we , we should concentrate on improving life on this planet. God , Intelligent Designer , or pure dumb luck knows, for 90% of the life, it could do with improving?

[Dave K]

nepharous,

Still missing the point then?

Even if we find life 'out there'. So what? You can't interact with it.It won't change anything for any of us!
You can however , interact with those around you. You can change your life.
My point is we , we should concentrate on improving life on this planet. God , Intelligent Designer , or pure dumb luck knows, for 90% of the life, it could do with improving?

[oto kiralama]

Even if we find life 'out there'. So what? You can't interact with it.It won't change anything for any of us!

[EvilCosmicMonkeyfrom Knoxville]

Hmmm.....
Confirming the existence of Extra - Terrestrials would seem to imply SOME level of interaction as well, unless of course we're talking about just receiving / monitoring signals indicative of said life & civilizations from a distance & after the signals have traveled perhaps thousands of years.