Will the Future Get Better, or Will Tippings Points Alter Global Prospects?

"The future continues to get better for most of the world, but a series of tipping points could drastically alter global prospects."

2008 UN State of the Future Report

We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed. So said the UN 2008 State of the Future Report that found life is getting better for people worldwide, the current global fiscal meltdown not withstanding, but that governments are failing to respond to critical time-sensitive opportunities.

"This is a unique time in history. Mobile phones, the Internet, nternational trade, language translation and jet planes are giving birth to an interdependent humanity that can create and implement global strategies to improve its prospects," reports 2008 State of the Future.

"It is increasingly clear that the world has the resources to address our common challenges. Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve them."

Humanity stands on the threshold of a peaceful and prosperous future, with an unprecedented ability to extend lifespans and increase the power of ordinary people – but these achievements may be overshadowed through inequality, runaway derivatives, violence and environmental degradation.

The report, which drew on contributions from 2,500 experts around the world, was produced by the Millennium Project of the World Federation of the United Nations Associations. According to the study, many important things are already getting better: life expectancy and literacy rates are increasing worldwide, while infant mortality and the number of armed conflicts have been falling fast. Per capita income has been growing strongly enough to cut poverty by more than half by 2015 – except, importantly, in Africa.

Even better, it says, "advances in science, technology, education, economics and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today".

Medical breakthroughs are offering the hope of defeating inherited diseases, tailoring cures to individual patients, and even creating replacement body parts. Information technology and pcs are spreading even to remote villages in developing countries and dramatically increasing in power to provide "collective intelligence for just-in-time knowledge to inform decisions."It will be 25 years until a computer's capacity equals the power of the human brain. After another 25 years, everyone will be able to access processing power greater than that of all the brains on Earth combined.

The Internet, the report observes is "already the most powerful force for globalization, democratization, economic growth and education in history.

"The internet allows self-organization around common ideals, independent of conventional institutional controls and regardless of nationalities or languages. Injustices in different parts of the world become the concern of thousands or millions of people who then pressure local, regional or international governing systems to find solutions.

"This unparalleled social power is reinventing citizens' roles in the political process and changing institutions, policy-making and governance."

And this is happening in a world that is already becoming freer and more democratic. Over the past 30 years, the number of free countries has more than doubled from 43 to 90, it reports, while those that are partly free increased from 46 to 60. Just over one-third of humanity still lives in the 43 countries with authoritarian regimes, but half of these people are in China.

On the other hand, the report warns "half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to rising food and energy prices, failing states, falling water tables, climate change, decreasing water-food-energy supply per person, desertification and increasing migrations due to political, environmental and economic conditions". Other threats such as increasing terrorism, corruption and organized crime – remain undimished.

Food prices have more than doubled in a year and have already plunged 37 countries into crisis, greatly increasing hunger and poverty. And price rises seem set to continue because food production needs to increase 50 per cent by 2013 and double in 30 years.

"With nearly three billion people making $2 or less per day, long-term global social conflict seems inevitable without more serious food policies, useful scientific breakthroughs and dietary changes," says the report.

Global warming is occurring faster than expected. This could cause southern Africa to "lose more than 30 per cent of its maize crop by 2030" and help to increase the number of people facing water scarcity fourfold to a massive three billion by 2025. The rate at which the world's ice is melting, it says, "has doubled over the last two years", and it quotes a US military report which predicts that global warming "can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide and the growth of terrorism."Sea-ice last year shrank to 22 per cent below the previous record low, a level that had not been expected to be reached until 2030-50, opening up the Northwest Passage.

Nuclear power may not be the solution many governments think it will: "to eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, about 2,000 nuclear power plants would have to be built, at $5-15 billion per plant, over 15 years – and possibly an additional 8,000 plants beyond that to 2050."

The report says that there is not enough uranium in the world to fuel all those reactors, that another Chernobyl-type accident could halt the expansion in its tracks, and that the rapid spread of the atom around the world increases the chances of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.

The report estimates that there is a 75 per cent chance that terrorists will have acquired nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, observing "Links between terrorists and organized crime are worrisome, especially considering that, on average, there were 150 reports of unauthorized use of nuclear or radioactive materials to the International Atomic Energy Authority per year between 2004 and 2007."

Organized crime, it adds, "continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counter strategy". It reckons that it is now worth some $2 trillion a year.

China's largest car maker plans for half its cars to be hybrids within two years. But the report's authors say that governments are not up to the job: "Many of the world's decision-making processes are inefficient, slow and ill-informed, especially when given the new demands from increasing complexity and globalization. Climate change cannot be turned around without a global strategy. International organized crime cannot be stopped without a global strategy. Individuals creating designer diseases and causing massive deaths cannot be stopped without a global strategy. It is time for global strategic systems to be upgraded."

Finally, the report notes that 850 coal-fired power stations are planned to go into operation across the US, China and India over the next four years. Each station would operate for about 20 years, greatly accelerating global warming. By 2050 25% of Europe's electricity could come from solar-powered stations in North Africa. African leaders and aid organizations are to invest $10 billion a year in renewable energy over the next five years-assuming a rapid recovery from the current crisis., which is doubtful.

The report obviously failed to predict one massive tipping point: the madcap global financial mess we find ourselves it. The problem with prophecy, a wit once said, is predicting the future.

Posted by Casey Kazan.

Independent Online  Report

Comments

[Coyote]

“Humanity stands on the threshold of a peaceful and prosperous future, with an unprecedented ability to extend lifespans and increase the power of ordinary people – but these achievements may be overshadowed through inequality, violence and environmental degradation.”

*
This report on the “2008 UN State of the Future Report” is too optimistic focusing on possible rosy results rather than a more realistic view of that which holds us back. We indeed stand on a threshold, but one that will more likely resdult in war pain and death for many folks before things actually get better. That is if we continue on the course we have set.

But, if the power of the Internet and globalization can be turned from making excess profits to solving these problems ahead of us, then there is a slight chance that current levels of civilization and civility will survive. I am not holding my breath that globalists will turn their attention away from immediate profiting to a more moral agenda, and thus this picture is excessively rosey.

But then we have a new hero rising in America who just maybe..........

[nickrollout]

@ Coyote
"globalization can be turned from making excess (sic) profits to solving these problems ahead of us"

So who will determine what excessive profits are? I think this was tried once already, and it was called communism.

If you think your "new hero" will change anything, you are extremely naive. Partisan politics is a far greater threat to rational problem solving than globalization.

[Fred X]

The Green Saboteur Luddite Anti Prayer

Oh my holy entropic energy god please listen to my prayers…..

Atomic energy is great. We need to drill on the coasts and in ANWR for oil We need to keep researching all the alternative energy possibilities. We need the Chevy Volt. Please help T. Boone Pickens and others like him develop his plan. Please burn the ecotards and use the waste heat to generate electricity! Banish all the green saboteur luddites to islands where only liberals live. Let them sell expensive lattes and ride unicorns to work for I do not want to live in a cave. Do not force me to do research about cow farts. Let them first live as they advocate others do before legislating a carbon free dark age. Do not let their false god bend me to my knees for their religion of global warming. Do not let their strange neurotic germanic environmental worship take over my government for the germans also have preoccupation with feces and I am not anal retentive.

Amen and lord of Energy deliver us from The Green Saboteur Luddites who hum and chant and look like Anthony Zorba in the Omega Man wearing the monk hoodie.

[Sancrows]

I think one of the most important, if not the most important things needed to advance humankind is education. And let's be frank, take it away from the formal education systems now existing. Put it on the internet. I have seen an education system that is designed to make the users think critically, and it's interesting and 'fun.' It's called the Davies system.
This will move humankind like nothing else toward a more humane world.

[J. Cassano]

...The Future Isn't What it Used to Be! (It's Going to be Better)...

This report of the "got theirs" minority is unconscionably arrogant and completely dismissive of the the world outside of their gilded cages. It represents the time-honored tradition of building the future on the crushed bones of the "have nots". The Carnegies, Mellons and Rockefellers must be rolling with laughter in their graves.

Yes, the future will be better for the "got theirs", but for the rest of the world - i.e. the majority, it is a future of increasing and unrelenting poverty, violence and undernourishment.

Excuse me for not looking through personalized rose-colored glasses, or holding a scented cloth over my nose to prevent me from experiencing reality.

[Kathy Anderson]

Whatever you think...you're right!
Whatever you think...you are creating right now!
Isn't that great news? There is almost no lag time now between creating something in your mind, and manifesting what you were thinking! Choose well and "In-Joy" the wild ride we are about to embark on! The duality is fading away fast...Planet Earth has achieved Ascension, and the proof is in my photographs. I have THOUSANDS of photographs, all very different, multi-layered, and encoded with critical information regarding the HISTORY of the Planet as well as teachings about our FUTURE. The future is bright, but you will always have the option of choosing to reside with those who choose a lower vibration. Those choosing a Higher vibration will simply be invisible to you, like these Lighted Beings/Ascended Masters used to be "invisible".
Proof of the Ascension that we have achieved on the Planet! I will change the slideshow often, to share more of the photos.
You have NOTHING to FEAR...get rid of the negative thoughts. It affects the masses and is magnified in the Mass Consciousness, which has a negative effect on everyone, the weather, Mother Earth, and the entire Universe! Just smile, laugh, love...and know that you will be provided for...it begins with your thoughts.
Step into your power and CREATE something wonderful!

[Kathy Anderson]

You can see the pictures here:
www.mastersoflight.blogspot.com

That's "Masters of Light"...

[Jerome Glenn]

The person who wrote the quote below did not read the 2008 State of the Future since maybe the majority of text of the 15 global challenge explains what can do us in.

"This report on the “2008 UN State of the Future Report” is too optimistic focusing on possible rosy results rather than a more realistic view of that which holds us back."

[Vivid Unicorn]

Cassano is right! We should all wear rose colored glasses and hold scented cloths to our noses. Otherwise we will smell all the B.O. from people sweating due to global warming.

The future is bleak. I have bought stock in paxil because with global warming making it hard to sleep people will get depressed.

[Captain_Sakonna]

This is encouraging. However, we shouldn't let the fact that certain things have gotten better make us thing that we can relax and stop trying to make them even better than they've become. And, as a number of you have said, we also cannot afford to ignore potential emerging problems.

[Saudi]

Earth is climate self controlled and self healing, thanks to its oceans and atmosphere and their dynamics.

Global changes and warming particularly is an event that can be felt and expected to go in direction of bringing situation back where and as naturally ought to be, after the accumulative atmospheric component variations to a certain and tipping point a sudden burst of more violent changes (storms, floods, oceanic temperature and current changes and rising of sea level, will happen in attempts to return to where and as situation naturally ought to be.

Example;- Hurricane develops over times because of the weather changes and accumulations of heat before suddenly become calamity, then soon after the hurricane die off things appear and feel normal after accumulated heat in one place spread all over wider area and dissipate away. Far more number of hurricanes and big cyclones expected to happen. Wind to redistribute the heat and rain to wash down CO2 to the oceans. Warmer Ocean will swill to release off the heat.

Deferent but rather interesting example;- Look to the world financial system, hidden wrong things were going on for long time, global financial changes started to show off and be felt first in the US, situation developed to a hurricane that swiped through the world, and expected to make people fix things up to go back where and as naturally ought to be,

you can also think of it as some buildings founded and went through building process, but at some point building process accelerated, haste and lots of newly changes not in the original plan introduced for competition, collapse of the latest falsely exaggerated bubble build up happened, collapse to start all over and rebuild is necessary for correction to go back where and as naturally should be.

[Saudi]

In short,

YES, and certainly,

But it will get worse before getting better.

[Pikestaff]

According to a TV program I watched yesterday, Titled
'the big freeze investigated' aird by the national geographic channel, this warm period we are in is an amomaly, from what I can make of the program, we have been warm for far too long, so perhaps this CO2 is doing us some good after all, although I cannot see how less than %1.00 of the atmosphere [CO2] can do so much 'damage'.

[amishboy]

Define "free". Please people, this is a un study were talking about here. At one time they had syria on the human rights committee! Is Comrade Chavez and his "Socialist revolution" on the list!

[bitirim]

thank you

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