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The Daily Flash: Eco, Space, Science (17/3)

World Population Devastated if Predicted Warming Increase of 9 Degrees F Occurs

Worldpopulationdayballoo On the closing day of the Congress on Climate Change held last week in Copenhagen, one of the world's leading experts, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said that if the buildup of greenhouse gases and its consequences pushed global temperatures 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher than today — well below the upper temperature range that scientists project could occur from global warming — Earth’s population would be devastated.

“In a very cynical way, it’s a triumph for science because at last we have stabilized something –- namely the estimates for the carrying capacity of the planet, namely below 1 billion people."

Schellnhuber's comments at the Copenhagen conference underscore that, given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories are unfoldinmg. For many key parameters, the climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived. These parameters include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean and ice sheet dynamics, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

Recent observations show that societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2°C will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and will increase the level of climate disruption through the rest of the century.

It is important for people to understand that the warming the IPCC talks about is not hypothetical. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the warmest years in global surface temperature since 1850. Glaciers and snow cover have declined, and ice sheets from Greenland and parts of Antarctica are melting. The ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system, yet the average temperature of the ocean has increased up to a depth of 3,000 meters, causing seawater to expand and contributing to sea level rise.

Schellnhuber, citing his own research, said that at certain “tipping points,” higher temperatures could cause areas of the ocean to become deoxygenated, resulting in what he calls “oxygen holes” between 600 and 2,400 feet deep. These are areas so depleted of the gas that they would badly disrupt the food chain.

Unabated warming would also lead to “disruption of the monsoon, collapse of the Amazon rain forest and the Greenland ice sheet will meltdown,” he said.

Scientists must make clear the disastrous effects of climate change so the world takes action now to cut carbon emissions, leading economist Nicholas Stern said on told the gathering of 2,000 scientists.

"You have to tell people very clearly and strongly just how difficult (a temperature rise of) four, five, six or seven degrees Celsius is," he said.

"Billions of people would have to move and there would be very severe conflict," said Stern, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former British Treasury economist.

"That's a story that must be told to persuade people it's a very bad idea to go anywhere near five degrees. This is not a black swan, this is a big probability of a devastating outcome," he

Posted by Casey Kazan

Sources:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/scientist-warming-could-cut-population-to-1-billion/
http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/dai/Schellnhuber-PNAS-2008.pdf
http://www.copenhagenclimatecouncil.com/get-informed/news/scientists-deliver-politicians-key-messages-for-copenhagen-climate-talks.html
http://www.copenhagenclimatecouncil.com/get-informed/news/clear-and-present-danger-a-conversation-with-nobel-laureate-steve-chu-on-the-risks-of-climate-change.html
http://in.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idINTRE52B37Q20090312?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0


Comments

All real science says +2 C or +4 C degreees warmer would be a blessing to animal, plants and humans. I'm quite sure that also +4.5 C would be a blessing.

our goal should be 1 billion people. this would relieve pressure on our little part of the universe. if in the future we invent our way clear of the mess we make of stuff we can re-expand the population in a responsible way.

This is about as likely to happen as everyone on the planet farting at the same exact instant. But, that will not deter me from sounding the alarm and warning everyone incessantly and ad nauseam of the minuscule possibility.

The Daily Galaxy: "The ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system, yet the average temperature of the ocean has increased up to a depth of 3,000 meters, causing seawater to expand and contributing to sea level rise."

That oceans should store heat like this wasn't said before, and basic rules of physics says that heat can only be transported to the oceans if it actually occur in the atmmosphere above. Thus there is no hidden process of heat being stored in the oceans.

The oceans expanding we do not see. The sea level rise actually slows down:

http://sealevel.colorado.edu

dirk alan. To plan population needs totalitarian regimes, and it's unnecessary to do it since the earth doing well with 7 or 10 billions of people and the populationdue to UN forecast, and other professional forcasters, will not rise much above 9 billion people in the middle of this century and then start to decline. This is obvious due to the connection between birth rate and development.

Large global warming from emitted CO2 should be the greatest hoax, upheld by corrupted science, that we've seen ever in modern times.

John Holdren dear friend Paul Ehrlich said in 1970 that US would have starvation and a population of a few 10 million people year 2000. That was alarm which asked for governmental control then. We have the same today, fueled by stupid crap labeled "science".

/Magnus (B Sc in applied physics)

Mag Nificent. "...that will not deter me from sounding the alarm and warning everyone incessantly and ad nauseam of the minuscule possibility".

Since no one can't deny the possibility of a little ice age -- it's actually quite likely, where e.g. 4 out of 5 japanese scientists believe in that rather than in an AGW threat -- your strategy means that you at the same time have to warn for cold climate.

Warn for everything! It actually can happen! Warn!

I put my money on that we'll have at least 30 years of a substantially cooler planet ahead. This is bad, but 2 degrees C of warming would have benn very good for Earth and humans. Am I warning for cold? Not much. I think we shall try to adopt, as we always had to climate change, but I warn for the climate change politics, which is more government because of the catastrophe alarm which says humans are the culprit.

Magnus A:

Just my brand os sarcasm. I believe Global Warming to be a hoax by incompetent's with a pathological need to control others.

Earth is climate self controlled and self healing, thanks to its oceans and atmosphere and their dynamics.


Also Earth recourses are enough to sustain good living for all human and all species, does not matter human population 6, 10 or 20 billions; the problem is mismanagements and lack of corporations,

Example:-
Some parts of earth surface are arid when other parts are flooded with fresh water, shame on peoples to let that situation stay as it is without doing much about it with today's technologies and available means, Fresh and readily available water rivers end up draining back to the sea when in the same time expensively desalinating it for fresh water,Saudi Arabia cannot get water from Sudan Nile River and Kuwait can't get it from Iraq Tigris and Euphrates rivers! And even within the same country as in Egypt, life and people capriciously over crowded and stuffed just at where the Nile River flows, the rest of the country left undeveloped desert!

Magnus A. needs to take a basic science class. It's clear he can't tell "real" science from a Limbaugh comment.
He can't read graphs either, probably doesn't understand the mean sea level is rising since 1994 in the graph he referenced with the usual scatter.
I like this site's ideas, but with commentators like this, you waste the time of "real" scientists.

Some people are willfully blind to reality. Others are just plain stupid. Pity.

The evidence for imminent global warming is quite incontrovertible. But like the ancient Romans, we are more interested in bread and circuses than in the barbarian hordes waiting at the gate. Denial is not just the river in Egypt.

Denial is not just the river in Egypt.

ahmm!?


be kinde, take it a little bit easy and nicely enlighten us, please.

Saudi - sorry, I forgot for a moment that this is an international site. "The Nile" is a river in Egypt. "Denial" is an English word which sounds somewhat like "the Nile." My lame attempt at humour, having given up in frustration any other attempt to impress the general population with the imminent dangers of Global Warming.

In a CBC series of documentaries about the water woes being suffered by the planet, one report indicated how Yemen (your neighbour) was depleting the fresh water table under the desert at an accelerating rate by necessity of irrigation of certain crops. Another of your neighbours, Israel, is expanding desalinisation plants on the Mediterranean to compensate for the reduction of potable water from the Jordan River, now just a trickle. Egypt, too, was interviewed, lamenting the demands being made upon the Nile everywhere along its lengthy journey to the sea from Lake Victoria. Fresh water is becoming the new gold and silver treasure of the world.

Since when are computer models science? Engineering maybe , but not science. Further, if IPCC wants to gain any credibility with their models, perhaps they should conduct them in more than 1 dimension.
Quite astounding how non-scientific these AGM hysterics are.

John, BSc '90

rabrown. Rush Limbaugh? Have not done basic science? The only thing you seem to be able to accomplish is to spit those who not share your opinion in their faces. That is typical “troll quality“.

You say: "I like this site's ideas, but with commentators like this, you waste the time of "real" scientists," which seems to be a suggestion to this blog to not allow my comments. Besides your silly smearing it's a pity that some people in lack arguments suggest word to be censored.

I've accomplished a technical course with a B Sc. Please tell me why you don't think I can read the graph at sealevel.colorado.edu . Sea level rise isn't accelerate. I've seen no data which shows it is, except short time data where the difference is due to decadal variations.

Also you may like to answer my argument about heat transfer into the oceans? Explain how global warming can be accelerating and consists of large heat transfer into deep ocean, as RealClimate suggest, when air surface temperatures has dropped and are not above average for decades. The laws of thermodynamics create problems.

rabrown. I'm sorry, but I’ll answer this troll again.

You say I’m "probably doesn't understand the mean sea level is rising since 1994 in the graph he referenced with the usual scatter."

Scatter has no relevance here. It's normal in this data. I'm not deny that sea level has rised. Maybe it hasn’t, just as Nils-Axel Morner say (*), but I do not oppose what the graph show about sea level rise. What it show is also that the sea level rise slowed down the last years.

--
(*) Btw, the Antarctica gains water (both Wingham and Lennart Bengtson have in independent studies shown this the last years) when the ice expands, and this corresponds to reduce sea level with ~10 mm per century. The melting of the Arctic and glaciers around the world are expected to be substantially larger, but I can hardly see how it will lose that much ice so that we have more than 200 mm sea level rise per century. Due to most recent research the sea level rise from West Antarctica will be slow over several thousands of years.

His subject is good, long while I find this topic and I think it is here,

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