Will Climate Change & Eco-migration Lead to Increased Warfare?

A few years ago the Pentagon-sponsored report, Abrupt Climate Change Scenario warned of the need to strengthen US defenses against "unwanted starving immigrants" from the Caribbean, Mexico and South America. In January 2007, the Halliburton subsidiary Kellogg, Brown and Root won a contract from the US government to augment existing immigration detention and removal facilities "in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the US."

Some worry that climate change issue is being looked at the wrong way. Rather than looking for solutions to help mitigate climate change backlashes around the world, developed nations are only looking out for their own short-term interests. Some fear this mindset could be used as an excuse for the US military to justify more overseas interventions, especially in Africa. American defense officials are currently citing the threat of climate-induced disorder and  to legitimize the establishment of AFRICOM, the Bush administration's controversial new regional military command for Africa. The CNA defense think tank's influential 2007 report "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change" focuses on how resource scarcity, environmental degradation and climate change are likely to trigger violent conflict in Africa.

The nations predicted to be most affected by climate change are those with the least capacity to adapt or cope. This is especially true in Africa, which is becoming an increasingly important source of US oil and gas imports. Already suffering tension and stress resulting from weak governance and thin margins of survival due to food and water shortages, Africa would be yet further challenged by climate change. The proposal by the Department of Defense (DOD) to establish a new Africa Command reflects Africa's emerging strategic importance to the US, and with humanitarian catastrophes already occurring, a worsening of conditions could prompt further US military engagement.

By the year 2100, global warming likely will cause the extinction of numerous species by eliminating the climate zones in which they are able to live, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy Of Sciences earlier this year. But not only will animals be forced to move or die, people will be faced with this same dilemma as well.

With the planet heating up, and global warming predicted to redefine world climates, and some places will be harder hit than others. A new study shows that as climate change intensifies droughts, storms and floods, this will undoubtedly lead to environmental migrations and potential conflicts in the areas migrated to.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in the US, large populations were forced to find refuge elsewhere. Rafael Reuveny from Indiana University says these types of displacing natural phenomenon will only grow. His new study takes a look at the role environmental degradation on population migration, or ‘ecomigration’ will play in the future. The study in the journal Human Ecology examines the potential impact on areas receiving migrants and the resulting violent conflict that could follow. 

The study underlies the fact that people facing environmental disasters are usually forced to leave the affected areas to avoid death. However understandable this might be, the larger the migration and the shorter the period over which it occurs, the harder it is for surrounding populations to absorb the migrants. Reuveny says this will dramatically raise the likelihood of conflict. For example ecomigrants may clash over jobs with locals, as well as over resources and culture. Violent interactions such as theft, seizure of resources and property, murders and insurgencies are likely to rise, he predicts.

Reuveny asserts that in order to minimize the impact of these future environmental migrations, developed countries should already be involved in creating preventive strategies both at home and in developing countries to mitigate these likelihoods. The time to come up with game plans is now, he argues, because climate change is expected to degrade the environment considerably during this century.

Reuveny’s analysis of three case studies – the US Dust Bowl in the 1930s; Bangladesh since the 1950s; and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, shows that although climate change can spur large population movements, public policy does have the power to alleviate the pressures of ecomigration. If a country can invest in areas affected by environmental problems, the scope of ecomigration can be reduced and transitions will be smoother, he argues.

According to Reuveny, “minimizing climate change-induced migration and violent conflict in receiving areas requires an engineered economic slowdown in the developed countries, and population stabilization and economic growth in developing countries financed by the developed countries.”

Scientists have largely concluded that by 2100, climate zones will have likely changed across 12 to 39 percent of the Earth's land surface, based on a model that presumes a continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use and carbon emissions. Climate change will affect world migration trends and inevitably cause some amount of conflict, but exactly to what extent remains to be seen. However, wars would only add to the world’s collective suffering. Rather than looking at ways to protect our own assets, we would all be better off to look for more holistic approaches to mitigating these issues from a global perspective.

Posted by Rebecca Sat

Related Galaxy posts:

Under a Green Sky -90% of Earth's Past Extinction Events Caused by Global Warming
The Great Debate: How Fast Will Sea Levels Rise?
The Andes Vanishing Glaciers
The Day the Seas Died: What Can the Greatest of All Extinction Events Teach Us About Climate Change?
The Timeline For 21st Century “Climate Change Events”
Coming of Age in the Holocene
"Snowball Earth" Challenged
Bigger Threat than Global Warming -Mass Species Extinction
Monitoring Climate Change -Experts Say We Need Lunar Observatories
Unraveling the Mysteries of -Clues to Climate Change on Earth?
Arctic Discovery –Ancient Connections & the Global Climate
Stephen Hawking: Climate Change Greatest Threat Facing Planet
Arctic’s Legendary Northwest Passage is Ice-Free for the First Time in Recorded History
Coming War for the Arctic?

Related Links:
http://mokkikunta.blogspot.com/2007/12/new-wars-of-climate-change.html
http://www.springerlink.com/content/25397734x6n1m038/
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/112607H.shtml
http://www.springer-sbm.com/index.php?id=291&backPID=132&L=0&tx_tnc_news=3883&cHash=5a8ab7ee60
http://nationalacademies.org
http://www.newstarget.com/022013.html

Comments

[nepharous]

The carrying capacity of the planet is currently over extended by 4 billion people. Using current resource availabilty models the Earth could carry 1.2 billion humans into the forseeable future but with overpopulation we simply can't continue in current form. Polulation stablization is a good start. we need to pressure entities such as the Catholic Church to abandon thier dogma against contraception and abortions. The best thing we can do is to educate women on family planning and let them decide family structures for themselves. No more male dominated government intervention against planned parenthood.

[Tim Tacilauskas]

The governments of the world aren't going to like that concept nepharous. How can they exploit, um I mean fix the "Global Warming" problem without a vast, ignorant population to tax. How do you think the Catholic Church stays so rich? Dogma sells, and you need new customers to keep it lucrative.

[nepharous]

That is a good point. Maybe it's time for a full scale peoples revolt. When the world depression really hits and the industrailized world realizes that capitalism has completely screwed us there may be a window for a revolt. We are in the starting stages of a global conscuiosness awakening and the peoples of the world will not take being screwed for much longer. We have powers in numbers and the internet will be amajor tool for revolt. It starts with us standing up and saying no mre bullshit. To the naysayers we say YES WE CAN AND YES WE WILL.

[nepharous]

That is a good point. Maybe it's time for a full scale peoples revolt. When the world depression really hits and the industrailized world realizes that capitalism has completely screwed us there may be a window for a revolt. We are in the starting stages of a global conscuiosness awakening and the peoples of the world will not take being screwed for much longer. We have powers in numbers and the internet will be amajor tool for revolt. It starts with us standing up and saying no mre bullshit. To the naysayers we say YES WE CAN AND YES WE WILL.

[Kenny]

Yeah, because communist revolutions have worked SO WELL!

Have you learned nothing from the mistakes of the past?

[zip]

Tim Tacilauskas:

Are you serious? #1. Global Warming is a scam. #2. People are sheep. and #3. you're no sheepherder.

[claudio]

Strange article...

It appears to say that there is a study in some of the military agency in the US that envisages strong(military retaliation or proactive actions....) reactions in case the Africa areas that are producing energy imported by the western world will become stressed by revolutions becouse of poverty in turn induced by the global warming....

Nice study...However it is better it stays in some drawer...somewhere in some military base.

Who is going to be sure that a possible ('POSSIBLE') climatic variation is going to affect only Africa or other ebergy producing country ??? Who is such magicians with magic crystal ball ??

I can draft a model equally destructive : what about if the USA (CONUS) is going to become a desert devastated by hurricanes and by complete scarcity of water for long times ??

Who will be the poors an who the rich in such a situation ??

Abrupt climatic changes (the ones publicized by many scientists) do NOT care less of continental US ...or south America ...or west Europe......

Who can predict exact impacts and where ??? NOBODY.

Then the study is stupid...as it seems to imply that the poor peoples will become more poor and the rich nations may have a problem...

It is a usual America centric vision...????

With full respect for americans...sometime here we get the impression that they feel to be the center of this miniplanet...WRONG !!!!

Suggestions : Let them study BULL SHITS climatic models ....with cosequent 'Shitty-results'...

Regards

[Margaret]

Well here's to good old Halliburton aka Cheyney ... and a contract I hope they LOST. I recall Cheyney and Halliburton were very close.
The joke in here is this - the Pentagon assumes that climate change will lead to undesirable migration FROM "unwanted" peoples TO the USA! What arrogance!
I am willing to propose that any climate change devastation will hit the USA hardest and Americans are the ones who will flee N America TO the Caribbean etc. Look at Katrina! Look at the icy devastation across the US now.
We should be closing off our borders to the USA now, to protect ourselves from the Pentagon's "unwanted" invasion.
How does my attitude sound and feel to you my N American friends? Horrible doesn't it! Well, It works both ways.
Luckily Pres. Obama is generating goodwill for the US around the world. So we will keep our island borders open. For now.

[Des]

Global Warming will result in most of the world population having to move north - take a look at a globe and you'll see that there is little room below the equator for refuge and it's already full up with people. Desertification of northern Africa, northern South America (the Andes regions), the western plains of North America and southern Australia is proceeding pell mell. China is drying up along with Mongolia and Tibet, although the government there is not publicizing the event for political reasons.

Human activities are hastening the process, mostly by clear-cutting rainforests and jungles and replacing extensive natural cover with single-crop intensity growth. We're going to be sorry.

[René Sigma]

Check this http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/

[René Sigma]

Check this http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/

[Bob Williamson]

We face these and many other far reaching outcomes of our 'Business and Living as usual' actions of the past. What is now needed is a collective awakening by the masses. We in these forums often find ourselves preaching to the converted and singing to the choir of those already knowing our cries. In my book 'ZERO Greenhouse Emissions - The Day the Lights Went Out - Our Future World', I call the common man to arms in a way that they may be inspired to achieve what we all desperately need. Change - Scraping inappropriate subsidies to polluting industries and setting policy that is needed to combat the future we face. This can and must be achieved by the common man so as to give our global political leaders the mandate they need to enable policy. You may think it self serving to promote my book - It is not. It is serving you. It is serving the mother and the father of the child we are putting in harms way. Those I will commit to reaching out to. It is those we need to hear the message
Thankyou - to the converted. Please reach out to those that aren't.
Bob Williamson
Founder & Chair
Greenhouse Neutral Foundation
www.strategicbookpublishing.com/ZEROGreenhouseEmissions.html

[pikestaff]

whoever coined the word 'sheeple' had it right, throughtout written history, people have done what they are told, either by the king, or the bishop, its in the genes.

[Tim Tacilauskas]

Dear Zip.

I agree with you on all three of your points, especially the third one. My global warming comment was tongue in cheek. I was just trying to avoid an argument with G.W. believers while drawing a parallel between environmental extremism and religious extremism. Both need followers. The sheephearding I'll leave to the Goreacle and Congress.