A COP14 Insight: Are Global Warming Models Accurately Predicting Our Future?

The Daily Galaxy essay that follows gives context to the historic COP14 Conference on the threats to the global environment being held in Ponznia, Poland.

There are a lot of competing theories out there when it comes to climate change. It seems that for every expert opinion there is an opposite opinion, and for every piece of evidence there are contrary views. Politicians, scientists and environmentalists alike can’t seem to agree on all of the facts. But what about all of these computerized climate models coming out? Are they reliable and accurate? Can we trust the predictions these models generate?

In the recent study "How Well do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate?” which will be published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, meteorologists analyzed a wide range of existing models. Co-authors Thomas Reichler and Junsu Kim from the Department of Meteorology at the University of Utah researched how well climate models actually do their job in simulating climate by comparing the output of the models against observations for present climate. Using this method, the scientists analyzed about 50 different national and international models that were developed over the past two decades at major climate research centers in China, Russia, Australia, Canada, France, Korea, Great Britain, Germany, and the United States, including the very latest model generation used for the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The results of this study conclude that current climate models are quite accurate in terms of present climate, and can therefore act as valuable tools in predicting future trends. If so, that would mean that the models used for the recent IPCC report are realistic. Of course, unknown future variables, such as how we choose to respond to climate change, could change these projections, hopefully favorably. However, the data we have now is reliable, concludes the study. The research also found that most of the existing models project a global warming trend of about 7 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100-year period. Such a dramatic rise in temperature would likely have a devastating impact on many forms of life, including humans.

But what about the various claims from some experts that the Earth isn’t getting warmer, or the even more contrary claim that we may actually be entering into a cooling phase in the Earth’s climate cycle? The Daily Galaxy interviewed the lead author of the study, climate expert Thomas Reichler, to hear what he has to say about it. According to him, anyone claiming that the Earth isn’t getting warmer, or that it’s perhaps even getting colder, simply isn’t looking at the actual data, and very likely isn’t even a real scientist.

“I don’t think there is any scientific evidence to support such an idea. People may be coming up with those kind of ideas, but I don’t think it’s coming from scientists,” Reichler told the Daily Galaxy.
Reichler pointed out that most scientists agree that climate change is a real and critical issue, because that is what the scientific evidence accumulated thus far suggests. Climate change is expected to cause a wide range of weather and temperatures fluctuations including some areas becoming colder, but the overall trend is warming. According to Reichler, people can have an opinion that climate change isn’t real, but that doesn’t change the reality of it.

“There is absolutely no doubt that the world is in a warming phase,” Reichler told the Daily Galaxy, “and that conclusion is supported by 99% of all serious scientists, so I’m certainly not alone in that certainty. ”
But what about those who claim that climate change is part of an inevitable climate cycle that has little to do with humans? Is global warming a man-made phenomenon, or part of an inevitable climate cycle? According to Reichler, nearly all scientific evidence to date suggests that humans do play a role in the issue.
“Of course, there are some other contributing factors but the main factor involved is the many human activities that significantly increase levels of greenhouse gases.”

The Daily Galaxy asked Reichler what he believes average people can do on a day-to-day practical level to make a positive difference. Reichler says that, on the most basic level, people can make a significant difference by consuming less fossil fuel and by making our homes and lifestyles more energy efficient.
“Drive smaller cars, drive less, and insulate your house well. Things like this can make a difference.”

Posted by Rebecca Sato.

UN Climate Change 2008 Conference

View the full study on climate models

 

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Comments

[maudyfish]

Everyone needs to read a book that was published about 30 years back. It is called "What Goes Up".
It was written by some scientist that were studying the CFC's problem.

The interesting thing about it, was the atmosphere does not change in a day. That all this stuff that goes up takes a long time to clear up. Some as long as 50 years to begin the process. And that is only if every country got on the band-wagon.

In light of that, it seems to me that we should be in
emergency mode. This should be our primary issue to correct!!! Countries that are polluting the atmosphere even today are leaving a big mess for generations to come. Not a good way to help the future of earth!!!!

[Peter]

I think maudyfish is correct-- we should be in emergency mode. Unfortunately, those of us living in industrialized nations have learned to react only to what is directly in front of our faces. We live on credit, we spend recklessly, and we pollute recklessly. It isn't really surprising then that nobody is making the changes that need to be made to halt the problem of global warming, because we aren't even in control of our own personal lives.

[pikestaff]

And yet the British met. office graph shows CO2 going up, but a slight drop in average global temperature since 1998, I would upload this graph, but cannot find anyway to do it.
The UK has had 2 cold summers in a row and snow in November, that has not happend since 1934!
Can CO2, less than one percent of the atmosphere, really have that much effect?

[Des Emery]

pikestaff wonders about the amount of CO2 necessary to enable Global Warming. Recently I read in Canadian Geographic Magazine about research in the Canadian Arctic which indicated that a very minor increase in the parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere led to abrupt climate swings in the past.

Of course, we should remember that in nature everything is interconnected and repercussions like the butterfly effect are normal. So UK weather changes do not rely just on CO2 in the atmosphere but also on things like changes (caused by CO2 fluctuations) in the Gulf Stream which keeps northern Europe warm; variations there could account for either colder temperatures or increased snowfall.

We used to teach children, via nursery rhymes and fairytales (This is the House That Jack Built and The Old Lady and Her Pig) that all actions have reactions and that some actions can lead to unexpected results. Nowadays we build domino chains of complexity and tipping one causes all of them to fall.

[John Caley]

>>> anyone claiming that the Earth isn't getting warmer, or that it's perhaps even getting colder, simply isn't looking at the actual data, and very likely isn't even a real scientist. >>

LOL

In Tasmania the Ice Clouds are almost always covering the sky. Daily temperatures are 7 to 10C below average.

This change came on 2 years ago... and it is getting colder and drier.

Same for mainland Australia.

In places where it is "getting warmer"... these are losing their clouds.... clear sky heating

Down here condensation clouds are now flimsy.. the UV level this time of year should be extreme.... but now it is just high

During the day the ice clouds are converting some of the UV to IR... so sometimes it appears like a bar heater is over our heads.... but the air is cold cold... we are water bags,,, so to us it appears hot, but its not!!!!

Think what you will, I am a scientist and have studied this for well on 40 years

The layer of oil on the sea is thickening, and this Earth is headed to a snowball-earth situation.

Do the authorities want the world to know that ??

No water, no sun and no food in freezing cold....nice

Pathetic earthlings you are all doomed... destroyed by your own arrogant ignorance... LOL, oh it was just a little oil spill..... LOL

ironic eh !

[maudyfish]

You know Peter, you are right that most of us have not "really" been concerned about our environment; and that includes industry who has held back making changes in the name of "more research and proof"...
But, somewhere down the road, when the air is not fit for the people of earth, when all the damage is done,
some big CEO's who are stalling to make the move to cleaner industries are going to get the brundt of it all; that is if there still are enough humans on earth.
The problem today is that humans can't afford to wait 100 years for nature to do the cleaning up. So, if public opinion is important to companies because the consumer can make or break them, then perhaps we have found the Achille's heal.

[...]

To: John Caley

Not that chemical spills and abrupt climate change would be much better...

But yeah, America is run by old protestant white men who hide 'the truth' from the world to make money.

Or so the media claims.