Algorithm Makes 8th World Series Prediction: Go Rays!

If you’re a Tampa Bay Rays fan, then Professor Bruce Bukiet, a mathematician at New Jersey’s Institute of Technology, is your friend this year. In his eighth year predicting who will win the World Series, American baseball’s highest crown, Bukiet has announced that the Rays have an overall 59% chance of winning the series.

The idea of mathematics being integrated with baseball is not revolutionary by any means. There is an entire branch of mathematics devoted to the study, called sabermetrics. In reality it is just the analysis of baseball using the reams of statistics collected at the end of a game.

Bruce Bukiet applies mathematical modeling techniques to each player’s season statistics. First presented in 1997, Bukiet’s model also allows for the prediction of how many games a team should win in a season, what influence trades will have on a particular club, and whether or not to place a bet on a specific game.

Bukiet believes that baseball is more than just a game. "Baseball can be a terrific learning tool," said Bukiet. "It demonstrates how math is all around us."

His most recent statistics, prior to the World Series actually beginning, puts the Rays at a 59% chance of winning. The likelihood that the Rays will win in 6 games ranked the highest with 20%, and winning in 7 came a close second with a 19% chance.

The Phillies don’t statistically stand a great chance of winning. With only a 40% chance of winning the series, the best chance they have is a 12% chance to win in 7 games.

"I'm sure my friends who are Phillies fans are not happy about these numbers," said Bukiet.

Bukiet will continually update the NJIT website as the Series continues, backing up the theory that more data means a better likelihood of successfully predicting a winner.

Posted by Josh Hill

Sources:
http://m.njit.edu/bukiet/baseball/playoffs08.htm
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-10/njio-nps102008.php