Amazing as Usain Bolt's Olympic record-breaking 100-meter victory was, his
time of 9.69 seconds is nowhere near what biostatisticians such as Peter Weyand of SMU thinks is
the natural limit for the human body. Experts studying the steady progression of records over the past 50 years, see the limit of the world record, with a probable error of 0.17 seconds, namely, to lie between 9.26 to 9.60 seconds. Some see 5.0 seconds a possibility.
Because 6' 5" Usian Bolt broke the mathematical model that had fit 100-meter record data for almost a century, his incredible performance has reset the bar for how fast researchers believe humans ultimately can run. Will it be done by a 6' 9" future version of Bolt?
How fast will man eventually run? Will he ever run the 100 meters in five seconds flat?
"Not impossible," says one of the world's best known authorities on physiology and
biomechanics. Professor Peter Weyand, of Southern Methodist University, known for his
expertise in terrestrial locomotion and human and animal performance. Weyand said that
humans would soon have the ''ability to modify and greatly enhance
muscle fibre strength.'' This is would actually reduce the difference
between the muscle properties of humans and the world's fastest animal,
the cheetah, to almost zero.
Usain Bolt has now brought up the question — will man get faster and faster? And based on what Weyand says, will he one day outrun the cheetah?
"Probably not," said Weyand. "The same laws of physics apply to all runners. However, biologically speaking, speed is conferred by an ability of the limbs to hit the ground forcefully in relation to the body's weight, an attribute conferred largely by the properties of the muscles of the runner. The fast four-legged runners or quadrupeds do seem to be advantaged versus bipeds in terms of the mechanics allowed by their anatomy. These mechanics help quadrupeds to get the most out of the muscles that they have in a way that bipedal runners probably cannot.
Scientists believe man can’t run faster than 30 mph, with the best at about 27mph. A cheetah, on the other hand, reaches speeds triple that. Weyand said he expected speed to continue to improve and faster runners to emerge.
Reza Noubary, a mathematician at Bloomsburg University of Pennsylvania and author of a textbook on statistics and sports, had previously calculated an "ultimate record" of 9.44 seconds for the 100 meter.
Mathematicians don't use the body's physiology to assess human physical limits. They were merely working with data that suggested that human speed increases were decelerating and would eventually stop completely. Indeed, in some events, like the long jump, the pace of record-setting has slowed nearly to a stop. That record has only been broken twice since 1968.
Despite the success of Mureika's model, Weyand, said that mathematical models could never predict how fast humans might eventually run.
"Predicting it is fine for the sake of kicks, but it's not a scientifically valid approach," Weyand said. "You have to assume that everything that has happened in the past will continue in the future."
He suggested that it's impossible for mathematicians to predict the magnitude of the "freakiness of athletic talent at the extreme margins of humanity. Bolt, it turns out, is a perfect example."
Weyand, who has conducted research on the body types of the top 45 100-meter sprinters in the last 15 years, said that almost all elite runners conform to the body norms for their race length, except for the most-recent Olympic champion.
"Bolt is an outlier. He's enormous," Weyand said. "Typically when you get someone that big, they can't start."
That's because muscle speed in animals is generally tied to their size. For example, rodents, being much smaller than elephants, can move their muscles much faster. The same holds true for human beings. Sprinters are short and have more fast-twitch muscle fibers, allowing them to accelerate quickly, but compromising their ability to run longer distances. Four hundred-meter runners, almost always taller, have the reverse composition of muscle fibers.
Bolt, though, combines the mechanical advantages of taller men's bodies with the fast-twitch fibers of smaller men.
"We don't really know what the best form is and maybe Bolt is redefining that and showing us we missed something," said biomechanicist John Hutchinson of the Royal Veterinary College at the University of London, who studies how animals move.
Hutchinson also agreed with Weyand that the human speed limit will remain impossible to predict with any confidence.
For him, it's the International Olympic Committee and other regulatory authorities that will determine how fast athletes will be able to run by limiting the amount of advanced biotechnologies sprinters can use.
"The limits will be largely set by the rules of the IOC," Hutchinson said. "It's kind of an arms race with the regulators of the sport and the people trying to push the technology to the limits. At some point here there must be a détente where technology can't push us any further and the rules will restrict it."
With techniques for gene therapy likely to become available at some point in the not-too-distant future, Weyand said that its use by athletes was "inevitable."
"You could see really freakish things and we probably will," he warned.
Posted by Casey Kazan.