Hot Tech to Watch for the Next Four Years

The lifespan of technology is such that it’s hard enough to buy a computer that will last you more than three years, let alone be state of the art after 6 months. So when Gartner Group – an information and technology research and advisory firm – releases their “Top 10 Technologies” list, it isn’t for “the next decade,” but rather “for the next four years.”

Such a list has just been released  by the world’s leading technology research center, and appears below.

   1. Multicore and hybrid processors

   2. Virtualization and fabric computing

   3. Social networks and social software

   4. Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms

   5. Web mashups

   6. User Interface

   7. Ubiquitous computing

   8. Contextual computing

   9. Augmented reality

  10. Semantics

Now even for me, some of these words are fine on their own, but when compared to each other, or to technology, I get a little baffled. So I’m going to go through them one by one, and see what they all mean.

Multicore and hybrid processors

The most popular and widespread use of multicore processors at the moment belongs to the Intel Core 2 Duo and Quad Core chipsets that are bringing processor speeds in retail computers up and up. The future of this will see computing speeds continue to rise as we move in to the realm of 8 cores, and up. And while there aren’t really any retail programs that are going to make much use of this, the science community and other such groups will be able to make the most out of higher processor speeds.

Virtualization and fabric computing

Virtualization is, in one example, the ability to run Windows Vista applications on a Mac laptop running Leopard. It allows for programs from two operating systems – with their pros and cons – to be used on the same computer, without the need for a second box sitting around, and without the need to emulate the hardware. (Thanks to my friend JB for helping me work this one out.)

Social networks and social software

This is not a category that needs much in the way of explanation. However its uses will, eventually, grow to expand past the frivolous and social uses that we see in sites like Facebook and MySpace.

Programs like Second Life are already hosting business meetings, and websites like LinkedIn is providing people with the means to get in touch with people within their own fields, businesses and groups.

Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms

Cloud computing is definitely going to be a big part of our future, and well beyond four years as well. The theory exists that we will not necessarily be hosting our information on one computer or device, but rather in the clouds – over the internet or whatever process follows – and are thus accessible via our work computers, home computers, personal devices and all over.

Web mashups

The best example of a web mashup is provided by Google Maps, which combines two web services – in one instance, Google Maps and real estate information – and combines them to provide you with real estate information on Google Maps.

So, in essence, it’s the combination of two web services to create a new and more useful application.

User Interface

User interface, or UI, is definitely going to shift over the next few years. Bill Gates has just been quoted as saying that the mouse is going to be obsolete in a few years, replaced by touch screens. The iTouch and the Microsoft Surface are examples of the touch screen technology that Gates is referring too; using your fingertips to control, resize, move and change anything from images to data sets.

Ubiquitous computing

Want your fridge connected to the internet so that it can order the milk when it goes bad? Want to turn on the lighting or heating when you are on your way home from work? Want your life to be interconnected by the devices you use? Ubiquitous computing is also, funnily enough, called pervasive computing.

In addition, it means that, akin to cloud computing, your information can follow you from device to device. JB – who has helped me out with this article – describe that he wants “the football game to follow” him around. In other words, he sits in the car listening to the audio of the game, walks in to the house to his TV where it is then on, and then upstairs to his computer where it is then on.

Contextual computing

This is basically the idea that your computing devices will be able to perform based on whatever context you find yourself in. For example, when you undock your laptop from your work dock is it 12pm or 5pm. In other words, are you heading to a meeting – and thus don’t need anything special – or are you heading home, and thus need your calendar updated and emails checked?

This is also going to be used for mobile devices such as your phone. A recent grant was provided by Google to students at MIT for developing an application for the Android platform, that allowed the device it was on to sense whether you were outside, in a meeting or at home, thus allowing the device to swap profiles accordingly.

Augmented reality

We’ve often seen examples of this in futuristic movies. Those people wearing the goggles or with the contact lenses that pop up video calls, text, pictures, etc, that’s what we’re talking about when we use the term augmented reality. It’s basically augmenting your real-world reality with technology. (Thanks again to JB for help with this.)

Semantics

The semantic web is a term that is being thrown around a lot these days, and is, and it’s most basic level, the ability for a search engine to understand what you are talking about. In the future, the ability for a computer to understand what you are asking it – within context, rather than just by popularity as most search algorithms are based – will enhance our ability to get our work done quicker.

If you want a very basic concept of what Gartner are suggesting, then it is basically that technology in the future will make us all very lazy. It could be spun to say that we’ll all be more efficient, but I have a deep and intricate relationship with humanity, and I know that those who choose efficiency over laziness are far and few between.

Posted by Josh Hill.

Related Galaxy posts:

MIT Students Demonstrate Potential Power of Google's Android for Mobile Phones
Quest for Identity in the Digital Village -Daily Video Classic
Internet Going Galactic -To & Beyond
Beyond Google 3: Why a Semantic Web Will Be Smarter, Faster & All-Around Better
Quantum Physics & the Quest for the Perfect Internet
IBM "Cell" Tech Driving Emergence of the 3-D Web

http://businessofit.blogspot.com/2008/05/gartner-reveals-top-10-technologies.html

Comments

[paul]

isn't this telling us what we're using now? i mean, i'm using an 8 core pc now to view this page, i'm using a virtual machine to power lots of my apps using VirtualBox, 2ndLife has been around for years it seems every month some celebrity is doing a concert there or attending a film screening, cloud computing IS dropbox, touch screens aarrrghh! just coz Bill Gates said it doesn't make it new we had it at school 4 years ago!, internet fridges again have been around for years. seriously look for something new, high capacity SSD, missing link memory, ISPs selling the internet in package form.

[berkeley kid]

Bad description for some of these

1. Multicore and Hybrid

a)Multicore. The importance here is in small devices (iphones will stop sucking) achieving parity, and regular devices being able to do more interesting things (imagine a 'live' desktop) and increased programmer productivity (ex: GC becomes cheaper as it can be run in parallel, JIT optimizations can be done all the time)

b) Hybrid. You'll have a GPU in your iphone. Way more video and audio time, and you can use this on the go.

2. Virtualization and fabric computing. Mostly spot on - no more worrying about windows/mac/linux for software (though a lot of it is moving to the web anyways). It also makes you safer and let's us play tricks like saving/replaying/forking applications. Stronger implications for servers (and part of cloud computing) - you can move programs between machines, and so instead of having idling machines, you can distribute work better. Not sure what fabric computing is, but if that refers to wearable devices, there still has been no compelling casual use (medical etc is not casual).

3/4/5. Social software / cloud computing / web mashup: a clearer statement is that most applications are moving to the web, and we expect that we can do webby things with them, including expecting them to work together. A silver lining for cloud computing is for developers - we can get necessary resources like more processors 'on demand' - but this is not as drastic as a change for people.

6. UI: cited technology exists. More interesting is the mobile device space - laptops may largely become relics. e-paper, oled: imagine unfolding a computer, instead of lugging around a one foot beast.

7/8. Contextual computing/ubiquitous: an unstated component here is privacy. The google-knows-all era might be ending as we gain control of what we transmit, and thus are willing to do more (which is a big barrier to this stuff - crypto is catching up).

9/10. Don't know - doesn't seem compelling for the former and realistic for the latter (has been promised for decades - statistical approaches are trouncing it).

Not enough focus on hardware. Mobile broadband, autonomous vehicles, energy tech. Image recognition has been skipped too, and has made very strong advances recently, which will start to be felt. Finally, virtual earth type software based on reality - not fantasy second life VR - is becoming both feasible and desirable (and likely for asynchronous/personal use, not synchronous communication). Ex: virtual window shopping of the actual shop.

[John Thomas]

I dunno, I bought my Dell 5 years ago and still use it today, Sure I have upgraded the RAM and added anotehr hard drive but still do everything I want to do on it including gaming.

JJ
http://www.Ultimate-Anonymity.com

[Michael Stewart]

What about open source?
Open source is powering many of the technologies listed above so why doesn't it get a mention.

[Diego Caravana]

For the "cloud", see also my post at my blog:

http://diego.caravana.to/more-on-the-computing-clouds/

[akl]

Like always, the Gartner group in late, misleading and wrong. How do they stay in business?

[Nazzdeq]

I'm not sure about the mouse dying out. To move the cursor from one side of my 24" iMac to the other, I only have to move the mouse a few inches. With a touch screen, I would have to move my who arm from one side of the screen to the other which is something I would want to do all day long for sure.

Highly unlikely the mouse will die out anytime soon. Even if speech recognition got amazingly good you wouldn't want to work in a place where everyone was talking to their computer. The noise level would be ridiculous.

The mouse is here for awhile.

[Harvey]

"The iTouch and the Microsoft Surface are examples"

Don't you mean the iPod Touch?

[Tommy Howell]

Augmented Reality is used more frequently in automobile technology like the Cadillac Night Vision system where drivers can additional information on the windshield without distractions.

[Sean Lee]

Hi, I am a student currently doing my design thesis on augmented reality 3.0 and looking for opportunities to push this idea forward on the internet
here is my research blog regarding the topic
http://augmentedr3pt0.wordpress.com/augmented-reality-branding/
please let me know if there is any possibilities of joining in an collaborative effort to share this information
Sean Lee