NASA Team Pinpoints Human Causes of Global Warming

Human-caused climate change has impacted a wide range of Earth's natural systems, from permafrost thawing to plants blooming earlier across Europe to lakes declining in productivity in Africa.

Cynthia Rosenzweig of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science in New York and scientists at 10 other institutions have linked physical and biological impacts since 1970 with rises in temperatures during that period, including changes to physical systems, such as glaciers shrinking, permafrost melting, and lakes and rivers warming. Impacts also included changes to biological systems, such as leaves unfolding and flowers blooming earlier in the spring, birds arriving earlier during migration periods, and ranges of plant and animal species moving toward the poles and higher in elevation. In aquatic environments such as oceans, lakes, and rivers, plankton and fish are shifting from cold-adapted to warm-adapted communities.

"This is the first study to link global temperature data sets, climate model results, and observed changes in a broad range of physical and biological systems to show the link between humans, climate, and impacts," said Rosenzweig, lead author of the study.

Rosenzweig and colleagues also found that the link between human-caused climate change and observed impacts on Earth holds true at the scale of individual continents, particularly in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Photograph of a forest When permafrost melts, the layer of loose soil deepens and trees lose their foundations and tip over. Similar impacts across Earth are likely due to human-caused climate change.

To arrive at the link, the authors built and analyzed a database of more than 29,000 data series pertaining to observed impacts on Earth's natural systems, collected from about 80 studies each with at least 20 years of records between 1970 and 2004.

The team conducted a "joint attribution" study in which they showed, first, that at the global scale, about 90 percent of observed changes in diverse physical and biological systems are consistent with warming. Other driving forces, such as land use change from forest to agriculture, were ruled out as having significant influence on the observed impacts.

Next, the scientists conducted statistical tests and found that the spatial patterns of observed impacts closely match temperature trends across the globe, to a degree beyond what can be attributed to natural variability. So, the team concluded that observed global-scale impacts are very likely due to human-caused warming.

"Humans are influencing climate through increasing greenhouse gas emissions and the warming is causing impacts on physical and biological systems that are now attributable at the global scale and in North America, Europe, and Asia," said Rosenzweig.

An unexpected consequence of rising temperatures may be its effect on long-dead prehistoric life.

For thousands of years animal waste, and other organic matter left behind on the Arctic tundra, have been sealed off from the environment by permafrost. Now climate change is melting the permafrost and freeing mass quantities of prehistoric “ooze” from its state of suspended animation.

Russian scientist, Sergei Zimov, has been studying climate change in Russia's Arctic for 30 years now. He is worried that as this organic matter becomes exposed to the air it will drastically accelerate global warming predictions even beyond some of the most pessimistic forecasts.

"This will lead to a type of global warming which will be impossible to stop," he said.

According to Zimov, when the organic matter left behind by mammoths and other wildlife is exposed to the air by the thawing permafrost, microbes that have been dormant for thousands of years will spring back into action. They’ll begin once again to emit carbon dioxide and methane gas as a by-product. Zimov says thought the microbes are tiny, they will start emitting these gases in enormous quantities simply because there will be a lot of them.

Yakutia is a region in the north-eastern corner of Siberia, where a belt of permafrost contains the mammoth-era soil. It covers an area roughly the size of France and Germany combined. There is even more of it elsewhere in Siberia.

"The deposits of organic matter in these soils are so gigantic that they dwarf global oil reserves," Zimov said. U.S. government statistics show mankind emits about 7 billion tons of carbon a year."Permafrost areas hold 500 billion tons of carbon, which can fast turn into greenhouse gases," Zimov added. "If you don't stop emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere ... the Kyoto Protocol (an international pact aimed at reducing greenhouse emissions) will seem like childish prattle."

On other continents, including Africa, South America, and Australia, documentation of observed changes in physical and biological systems is still sparse despite warming trends attributable to human causes. The authors concluded that environmental systems on these continents need additional research, especially in tropical and subtropical areas where there is a lack of impact data and published studies.

The study, published May 15 in the journal Nature, concludes that human-caused warming is resulting in a broad range of impacts across the globe.

Posted by Casey Kazan.

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2008/human_impact.html

Comments

[Dave]

Perhaps the articles title is not that accurate, as I see no "pin-pointing" and more of the usual conjecture. The studies "ruled out land use..." forestry and agriculture... then they go on to say "the scientists conducted statistical tests and found that the spatial patterns of observed impacts closely match temperature trends across the globe, to a degree beyond what can be attributed to natural variability (huh?). So, the team concluded that observed global-scale impacts are very likely due to human-caused warming." 'Likely' is not exactly 'pin-pointing'. I for one have little doubt that Man has contributed in SOME fashion and SOME degree to global warming, but it is far from clear as to the true extent. This study appears to me far from conclusive. IMHO.

Regards
Dave

[Dennis]

Regardless of the inevitable arguments generated by this article, I have to say that is one cool picture!

[Mitch the Bitch]

Yet more proof the entire man-made global warming scam is a pathology based on a religous type of zealotry instead of facts and common sense. This has the Hanson's fingerprints written all over it.

We have much bigger fish to fry, like the layered over-bearing corruptacrats that have stolen OUR government and which are now in the job welfare business. Give any retard a title and some self proclaimed power and our rights and liberty are gone in a flash of global warming induced lightning.

[Todd]

Amazing how they "scientifically" link global changes to temperature changes...and then make the HUGE assumption that it's human caused. To scientifically link cause and effect is fine, but to blindly assume it's a human cause, rather than natural cycles in temperature, the sun, or one of countless other possibilities destroys all credibility in this "study." It's more propaganda.

[valcanoman]

What percentage of the total contributions is natural rather then man made? All the facts please not just some, list all of factors not just selected parts. Wait to finish the whole study and then publish.

[MICHAEL J. SCHMITZ]

YOUR WRONG. GLOBAL WARMING IS'NT CAUSED BY MAN. WE DONT HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY TO WEAKEN THE INVISIBLE FORCEFIELD( OZONE) AND ONLY ALLOW JUST ENOUGH HEAT IN TO MELT THE GLACIERS AND CREATE EXCESSIVE DISASTERS, YET OUR ATMOSPHERE IS'NT ESCAPING INTO OUTER SPACE, YET OUTER SPACE IS'NT ENTERING OUR ATMOSPHERE, BUT SOLIDS CAN COME AND GO UNTOUCHED. ALL NON-SOLIDS DECIPATE IN FROZEN THINNED AIR ABOVE OUR HEADS. ACCORDING TO YOUR HOPETHESIS WE'D HAVE TO SIT ON A PLANT THAT CONTROLS GLOBAL WARMING. LADY GET REAL, HUMANS ARE'NT THE CAUSE. OH BY THE WAY ARE YOU RELATED TO AL GORE, SOUNDS LIKE ONE OF HIS PLOYS.

[ChuckNorrisFan]

This is all rubbish. Everyone knows that Global Warming is a direct result of the heat of Chuck Norris' loins. Duh.

[Gene Cheatham]

If all of this is true, let's shut down the causes. China! India! Africa!

[Gene Cheatham]

If all of this is true, let's shut down the causes. China! India! Africa!

[Matthew]

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe. -Albert Einstein

When are you right-wing retards going to wake up to reality?

[kaiser]

It's true. We probably aren't responsible for global warming although the arguement that "it's all in the dootie " is more real than we care to admit. For me it is that ball in the sky. I don't know if you've seen it but it is bright , appears for half a day ( more or less ) is really warm and the Beatles wrote a nice song about it. We still haven't come to grips that something bigger than ourselves is reponsible for the destruction of life on this planet. How egotistical and yet how obvious

[Saranno]

"The study, published May 15 in the journal Nature, concludes that human-caused warming is resulting in a broad range of impacts across the globe."

No SH!T !! I can figure that out when I'm taking a dump in the morning.

[Mr. Sustainable]

The body of evidence continues to grow and humanity's guilt becomes all the more clear. Wake up, people! It's time to live in HARMONY with the planet which sustains us!

[JakeS]

LOL You know what else is scientifically proven? The Fact that the polar bear population has increased by 5x from 5,000 to 25,000 since the 1970s, and yet, global warming has cut their numbers SO low that they are now an endangered species. Lawyers have hit a new low. Do you not realize that they are a creature on the top of the food chain (which means huge territory/animal) and they are only found in the arctic circle! what do u want? for them to have a population of 200 million? they don't live in cities!

[JakeS]

And for the record, Mr. Sustainable, the only evidence mounting is contrary to gobal warming. You if you really were someone who liked facts, you would know that we JUST saw the end of a 500 year long mini ice age in the early 1800s.

[jj]

who took the photo at the top of the article? I like it. :)

[thedzigner]

It's just a cycle. I think it's good that people are being encouraged to be less wasteful, and more careful. However, there's nothing that's going to stop the cycle of warming and cooling; it's almost entirely related to the sun!thedzigner

[Patrick]

where's the data? And how have we linked it to us. Let's not forget all the beef and meat we eat every year which accounts for an insane amount of methane. http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/263

[Brian]

MICHAEL J. SCHMITZ is exactly right!! I heard hurricane Katrina was caused by a Chuck Norris fart while he was vacationing in South Africa.

[brian]

correction: not MICHAEL J. SCHMITZ but chucknorrisfan

[Kahn]

Good 'ol Global Warming Deniers, always towing the corporate line. Don't you know that global warming affects you too?

[Some Dummy]

It is funny that mathematicians cannot explain the movement of the financial markets (a system in which all the parameters are known) beyond a r-squared value of about 75%, yet there are some of you here who believe that these same mathematicians are able to infer with such certainty the causal link between human activity and global temperature (a non-linear system with an essentially infinite number of parameters). The failure of the CAPM and its derivatives is a prime example of our deficiency as a species to deal with these complexities mathematically. As I sit here in Chicago, it is impossible to forget that once this area was entombed by a mile thick sheet of ice. Recent changes in global temperature pale in comparison to the changes which the Earth has undergone over the last 2000 (let alone the past 100,000) years without human assistance. Don't underestimate the power of sampling biases (those of the unrecognized variety), for they are the root of all disinformation.

[Kevin]

Are you all serious? Do you really think that all 6 billion of us couldn't have some type of impact on our enviornment? Here's a hint: Go to college and get educated on topics like global warming before you go spewing your worthless opinions.

Thinking the sun is the cause of global warming? Are you kidding me? the sun has been the most studied solar body in the history of mankind. Our sun can't change much in 2000 years and it turns out there is a cycle or "warming" and "cooling" that has a period of 11 years. Any abnormal increase in radiation from the sun would be detected and reported on. Hmm.. I wonder why it hasn't?

Get a clue people. There are no actual scientists out there that can deny the existance of global warming. There's also no one out there that can deny that global warming can do catastrophic damage to us. What to we do? Sit on our asses in denial while we drive our escalades and SUV's while we wait for "the sun" to do its worst. Or do we do all we can to curb our wasteful lifestyles and see if we can't make it out of this with everyone alive? Think of it as a "war on climate change" if it makes you feel any better.

[iamright2112]

Global Warming is a reality, whatever is responsible. Why do some misled folks cling to the innocent assumption that, as the most powerful species on the planet, Mankind does NOT have the ability to affect the global ecology and climate. We certainly do and ARE!!! While we argue about it, nothing will be done to reverse it and we will cause more animal and plant species to die out and eventually it will be we who will be on the endangered list. Do you people think God or Jesus is coming soon to fix all this mess WE have collectively made? Dream on. If we don't stop screwing up our Mother Earth she will kick our sorry butts off this planet, by killing us to save herself. It may take a couple centuries, but it could happen.
Ostriches need not respond. Just folks who have learned to think for themselves, please.

[iamright2112]

I now believe that there is a task force of Neo Cons in cyberspace that monitors all Global Warming articles posted and then feverishly writes denial responses in whatever fashion they see fit, but it all sounds so ignorant it isn't even funny. The wealthy FOX News you seem to trust has been lying to you. Global Warming IS real and it WILL be believed by the rest of sane humans on this planet. Neo Cons are a tiny minority in the global human population. Too bad they have helped an idiot and a greedy hell bound rat bastard ruin this once proud country (USA). The rest of the world is getting on board with reality already. Why not educate yourselves with true facts and join them??? Afraid to realize you may have been misled??? Takes real character to change in the face of necessity. Cowards stick their heads in the sand and stick with the status quo. So which is it? Nothing will reverse the truth, so save your tired rants to the contrary. Climate change is here and needs to be dealt with, by humanity. That includes everyone, not just the free thinkers like myself.....