Place Your Bets! '08 Baseball Season Mathematically Predicted

It’s the beginning of the baseball season, and no matter who you’re supporting (Go Blue Jays!) it’s time to make your yearly predictions. And though each of us have a different method to work out who is going to win what and who’ll take bottom place, I doubt yours will be as involved as Bruce Bukiet’s.

Of the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Bruce Bukiet has for the past seven seasons used a mathematical model to calculate who will win, who will do well, and who will fail miserably.

The computer model predicts the probability of how a team will do against any given team, based on who is hitting, who has the home field advantage, who’s on the bench, and who is the starting pitcher and relievers.

Created by an avid New York Mets fan, the model has a pretty decent accuracy rate. According to its creator the model has more often than not picked correctly rather than incorrectly. Last year’s predictions saw him pick the Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets and Padres as clear Division winners; he was right about the Indians and Angels.

"These results give a guide of how teams ought to perform during the season," he said. "But there are so many unknowns, especially concerning trades, injuries and how rookies will perform that cannot be taken into account."

Nevertheless, the predictions for this season see the American League pretty much down to a contest between the Yankees, Sox, Tigers and Angels (what about my Blue Jays???). However the National League is not so clear cut.

"The National League should see much tighter races, with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves winning the East and the wild card respectively, while in the Central and West Divisions, only the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants have no real shot of making it to the postseason," Bukiet said.

The complete list of predictions is below, but no matter what the predictions say, the game isn’t over until the fat lady has sung!

   

* AL East: Yankees – 98; Red Sox – 98; Blue Jays – 86; Rays – 75; Orioles – 63

    * AL Central: Tigers – 96; Indians – 87; White Sox – 79; Twins – 74; Royals – 63

    * AL West: Angels – 92; Mariners – 78; A's – 75; Rangers – 70

    * NL East: Mets – 92; Braves – 89; Phillies – 84; Nationals – 73; Marlins – 70

    * NL Central: Brewers – 84; Cubs – 83; Reds – 81; Cardinals – 80; Astros – 79; Pirates – 71

    * NL West: Rockies – 85; Padres – 85; Diamondbacks – 83; Dodgers – 82; Giants – 75

Posted by Josh Hill.

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Source Link:

http://www.livescience.com/strangenews/080401-baseball-model.html

Comments

[Nick]

No way the Cubs will have a better record than the Cardinals!

[Me]

The Cubs usually beat the Cardinals, so I'm not sure what you're confused about...

[Me]

No way the brewers beat the cubs. Cubs = 99!

[Nick]

And when was the last time the Cubs have won a World Series?

[Me]

Well before Pujols and Ankiel started shooting each other up with HGH

[dave]

There is absolutely no way the Giants win 75 games this year. They'll be lucky to get 63!

[Fitness Workout Programs]

Where's Steve Bartman when you need him?
LOL!

[You Idiots]

GO TO BASEBALL PROSPECTUS. THEY ACTUALLY DO A GOOD JOB OF THIS.

[Root, root, root for the CUBBIES]

Very clever Dave, you must have an IQ of 160... don't know how to top that!

> Cubs lead the series 1044-1013
> Cubs won the series against the Cards in 07' -AND- 2006

> But I guess you were looking to match wits
... Don Denkinger! You burnt!

[PPx]

Cubs lose the penant by 1 game? Sounds about right.

[Shane]

No teams with 100 wins?

[pitt fan]

this predicts a statistical anomaly, that the Pirates will have their 16th consecutive sub-500 season. A record for any major league, professional sport.

[MLB Fan]

Wow, that is wrong. I'm a fan and I can do a better prediction than that. Since I love both the Rockies and Diamond Backs, both are hitting over 90+ wins. Same as the Cubs. Phillies are going to be better than the Braves, Andruw Jones sucks. Santana and the Met's are going like hit over 200 wins, lol. Santana is gonna have a 22+ win season for sure. And the Minnesota aren't even gonna get over 10 wins, because they lost their best player.

[RickRickert]

That thing that stands out for me is that there is no terrible team. The worst teams record is 63-99. Come on, liven it up a little. Tell me that the Marlins or Giants will go 35-127.....tell me that one team is going to suck big balls.

[bt]

Andruw Jones is on the Dodgers now.

[Louis Vuitton Replica]

Very interesting, I bet with a little tweaking this program can have a very good conversion rate. :) Will work wonders for people who bet on games LOL.

[Louis Vuitton Replica]

Very interesting, I bet with a little tweaking this program can have a very good conversion rate. :) Will work wonders for people who bet on games LOL.

[Armorking]

Well maybe he can predict NJIT's college basketball record for the 2008-2009 season...maybe the team will most likely win a game after a 0-29 season aka the worst basketball record ever in D-1.

[Nick]

It's not all about winning the series, the Cards did go on to win the World Series in 06, while the Cubs sucked it up like they always do and lost. Lets see it's 08 now and this will make it 100 years since the Cubs have won a World Series.

[Dale Cruse]

Yankees in the AL, Mets in the NL? Subway Series? Sweet!

[Jordan]

Damn right go brewers

[warsawa]

So only 2 teams in the National League will finish better than 4 games over .500? Seems unlikely.

[Adam]

Brewers all the way...especially over the Cubs. This is the year...sorry for Chicago fans but the curse will be with you for yet another year.