Are Global Warming Models Accurately Predicting Our Future? New Study Reveals the Answer—A Galaxy Interview

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April 03, 2008

Are Global Warming Models Accurately Predicting Our Future? New Study Reveals the Answer—A Galaxy Interview

Global_warming_071009_ms_3_3_2There are a lot of competing theories out there when it comes to climate change. It seems that for every expert opinion there is an opposite opinion, and for every piece of evidence there are contrary views. Politicians, scientists and environmentalists alike can’t seem to agree on all of the facts. But what about all of these computerized climate models coming out? Are they reliable and accurate? Can we trust the predictions these models generate?

In the recent study "How Well do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate?” which will be published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, meteorologists analyzed a wide range of existing models. Co-authors Thomas Reichler and Junsu Kim from the Department of Meteorology at the University of Utah researched how well climate models actually do their job in simulating climate by comparing the output of the models against observations for present climate. Using this method, the scientists analyzed about 50 different national and international models that were developed over the past two decades at major climate research centers in China, Russia, Australia, Canada, France, Korea, Great Britain, Germany, and the United States, including the very latest model generation used for the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The results of this study conclude that current climate models are quite accurate in terms of present climate, and can therefore act as valuable tools in predicting future trends. If so, that would mean that the models used for the recent IPCC report are realistic. Of course, unknown future variables, such as how we choose to respond to climate change, could change these projections, hopefully favorably. However, the data we have now is reliable, concludes the study. The research also found that most of the existing models project a global warming trend of about 7 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100-year period. Such a dramatic rise in temperature would likely have a devastating impact on many forms of life, including humans.

But what about the various claims from some experts that the Earth isn’t getting warmer, or the even more contrary claim that we may actually be entering into a cooling phase in the Earth’s climate cycle? The Daily Galaxy interviewed the lead author of the study, climate expert Thomas Reichler, to hear what he has to say about it. According to him, anyone claiming that the Earth isn’t getting warmer, or that it’s perhaps even getting colder, simply isn’t looking at the actual data, and very likely isn’t even a real scientist.

“I don’t think there is any scientific evidence to support such an idea. People may be coming up with those kind of ideas, but I don’t think it’s coming from scientists,” Reichler told the Daily Galaxy.
Reichler pointed out that most scientists agree that climate change is a real and critical issue, because that is what the scientific evidence accumulated thus far suggests. Climate change is expected to cause a wide range of weather and temperatures fluctuations including some areas becoming colder, but the overall trend is warming. According to Reichler, people can have an opinion that climate change isn’t real, but that doesn’t change the reality of it.

“There is absolutely no doubt that the world is in a warming phase,” Reichler told the Daily Galaxy, “and that conclusion is supported by 99% of all serious scientists, so I’m certainly not alone in that certainty. ”
But what about those who claim that climate change is part of an inevitable climate cycle that has little to do with humans? Is global warming a man-made phenomenon, or part of an inevitable climate cycle? According to Reichler, nearly all scientific evidence to date suggests that humans do play a role in the issue.
“Of course, there are some other contributing factors but the main factor involved is the many human activities that significantly increase levels of greenhouse gases.”

The Daily Galaxy asked Reichler what he believes average people can do on a day-to-day practical level to make a positive difference. Reichler says that, on the most basic level, people can make a significant difference by consuming less fossil fuel and by making our homes and lifestyles more energy efficient.
“Drive smaller cars, drive less, and insulate your house well. Things like this can make a difference.”

Posted by Rebecca Sato.

View the full study on climate models

 

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Comments

Maybe now the wackos who say global warming isn't going to be a problem will keep their mouths shut. Actually, that's probably never going to happen, but one can always dream, eh? Great article though.

What a load of crap...

The models cannot even accurately describe whats happening today based on what has already happened you have to wonder.

GW has become a religion to the non-religous...

Cherry picking at it's best....

When self-described "scientists" use terms like 99% agree you had better GRAB YOUR FN WALLET BUY A GUN AND HEAD FOR THE HILLS....

And RJ.

It's funny how anyone that disagrees is whacko...

Hitler, Stalin, Castro, Chaves would be so proud.

Mitch the Bitch, you are seriously delusional. You need to take your own advice and stop pretending to be anything but someone who "cherry picks" according to their personal whim. This study strongly shows that these models are clearly quite accurate, but you're acting like real science doesn't matter and only your own opinion matters. Someone who disregards all scientific evidence in favor of unsubstantiated opinions is my definition of a wacko.

Mitch isn't disregarding "all scientific evidence", though, is he? There are many scientists who believe global warming is due to something other than the rise of CO2, plenty of opposing evidence too.

There have been plenty of models proved wrong in the past, so keep an open mind. Of course warming is going to be a problem, but the point is, we are not necessarily the cause.

"The results of this study conclude that current climate models are quite accurate in terms of present climate, and can therefore act as valuable tools in predicting future trends."

The first part of this statement is undoubtedly true: the second part "predicting future trends" MAY also be true. However, while interpolation (nearly) always yields accurate results, we must be very careful of extrapolation! I do wish that the uncertainties in extrapolation were better explained when climate scientists make predictions.

I just got a Mini Cooper and i agree that everyone should drive a smaller car. VVVVRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMM!

The Soviet Union was full of small cars. How well did that work out eh?

If "YOU" want to drive a small car good for you. If I don;t want to drive a small car then good for me :)

It's called LIBERTY. The opposite is TYRANNY. Telling me what light bulb to use, what kind of car to drive, how I educate my children, etc etc is TYRANNY not LIBERTY....

Gee RJ, youre obviously talking about Al "just call me the" Gore-acle and his fantasy flick... The inconvienent LIE.

I don;t cherry pick. And I sure don;t listen to anyone that believes MM-GW is fact based on nothing more than intuition and feelings...

The debate is far from over... Until it is leave my damn wallet alone. I pay enough for left-wing social programs thaqt have turned out to be disasterous failures... Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security to name just a few. In fact everything the Leftists do fails. History is my proof.

Especially as I try to dig myself out from under the snow-drifts...

One last addendum.

Scientists have proven over and over how little they actually know as they pretent to know everything. History is littered with these "experts".

In 1975 the experts all agreed we were in a Global Cooling. About know I should be under a few Kilometers of Ice.

All I know is that Climatoligists cannot plug in data for the last 50 years into their models and get an accurate climate that is today. That tells me all I need to know despite any claim to the contrary.

We all know a lot less than many think they know. From a historical perspective that has always been so.

Mitch reminds me why I don't waste much time on Comments, blogs. He illustrates Einstein's comment; "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits."

Mitch reminds me why I don't waste much time on Comments, blogs. He illustrates Einstein's comment; "The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits."

Based on the evidense of your posts a much more likely culprit is your comlete lack of ability for even the most simple functions like pushing the "Post" button once...

Typical Liberal. If I'm unable to formulate even the most basic argument then I just start calling names...

Even Einstein was wrong about many things.. Einstein...

Sheesh, how sad.

Mitch

I'm not saying GW isn;t real, or even that man had something to do with it. What I am saying is that before you steal my Liberties, steal my Money and destroy Capitalism and America you had better be able to PROVE it beyond any shadow of a doubt. You cannot. Al Gore (ya know th eguy that invented the internet) and his minions of politically motivated con-men are not the proof that is needed. Your side has made the claims and the liability is upon YOU not me.

Calm down, Mitch! Just because science isn't flawless does not mean it's value-less. Christ, look at the errors in the Bible, and people still follow that religiously. By the way, I LOVE how anyone who opposes you must be a leftist-liberal with an agenda bent on stealing your money to line their pockets with. Just like those greedy liberal devils who own and operate the oil industry, right? Oh wait...

I am very calm.

Who owns the Oil Companies? Some fat white guy in a cowboy hat smoking a giant stogy right? Actually no, it's owned by STOCKHOLDERS... They are all publicly traded companies totally regulated for 100 years by the States and Federal Govs. They are doing a real bang up job eh? And after the libs kill these companies they will blame GW for stealing there 401k's (you know the stockholders) and for being unable to supply our enery needs.

Yet another failed pseudo argument based upon inuendo and fairytales.

Funny how Liberals all use the same tired line of crap isnt it Stumbles?

Take another hit....

Dear Mitch, you are anything but calm, and actually appear to hate everyone in your flimsy masquerade. Please add me to your list of losers. Or Liberals. Or whatever it is today that bothers you so. Do you understand what crap is? You seem to throw it around so effortlessly.
About this article... global warming is a very complicated science and everyone seems to have an opinion. I myself tend to shy away because there is simply too much I can in no way have any reasonable understanding of. It's obvious that in your grade 6 understanding of things you would be wise to keep quiet too. But NOOO you have to try and impress everyone with your obvious lack of knowledge. Pls do carry on though. It's fun morning reading.

Dave, you obviously have some great power with an ability to see all and know all and for that all of us peons are so very immpressed.

Had you actually read and not "read into" you would clearly see I said EXACTLY the same thing you said. You on the other hand believe YOU are above actual comprehension so you slide down into the gutter of nonsense.

As I've said, I'll try to go s l o w just for you Dave.. K. Lies and propaganda are not science. Until their is substantial evidence which their isn't,quit trying to make up facts by repetition.

This is nothing more than an ideaology reinforced by politics. The Academics want the new "Gold Rush" on taxpayer dollars and are using every tool at their disposal to latch onto the government teat.

Funny how you don;t mention Stumbles line about the evil oil companies (off topic) isnt it? Youre very quick to point out my reply and make assupmtions though arent ya? Sad little nacissist boy...

Liberalism is the slow road to tyranny.

That not a single self-described "smart" person can make a valid argument speaks volumes about GW.

Nothing better than the sound of screeching libs under my boot :)

All of 'us' peons Mitch? Don't go trying to join a crowd who'd want little to do with you. You haven't reached peon status yet. When you learn how to use words to communicate instead of insult or degrade then you might have a chance of learning from others. My wife just asked who I was replying to. I said mitch the bitch. I'd have to guess you're maybe 17, a white semi literate male using your mom's computer when she isn't looking. Lot's of anger. That goes away when you grow up and begin to understand people better. It's all fine and dandy to point out that the onus belongs to the camp that is promoting the theory of global warming to give evidence (not that I think you're able to take someones point of view and try and understand it). But really, that's all you have to do... point it out... say hey, I don't agree with you. The rest of your diatribe is just mean little pettiness that shows the world how many problems you have yet to deal with. But there are always people like you, and after you've grown up you'll run into that person again and look back feeling silly. I was an ass like you once.

So the problem with computer models was that there werent enough of them? Well, that solved it, case closed!

And yet we can't get an accurate weather forecast 2 days ahead! What's up with that? They say it'll be sunny this weekend, so my roommate schedules his roofing crew to get some work done. What does it do? Downpour!

There's still a lot of undecided science left to take care of out there before ANYone starts making claims of "knowing all"...

Heck, scientists can't even figure out why the sunspot cycle happens the way it does, or why the solar corona exists at all. So, let's not go claiming that we know everything we need to know about the solar-terrestrial interaction and all factors that could possibly play a role in climate change, man-made or otherwise.

P.S. Knock off the bickering, you guys. It makes you all look bitchy and dumb. How about everyone takes a deep breath and a 48-hour sabbatical then comes back in 2 days a bit clearer headed? Thx!

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