New Habitable Planets in Space
Frank Drake, the author of the famed "Drake Equation," which estimates the possible
range of intelligent civilizations in our home Milky Way Galaxy,
which contains about 400 billion stars will be giving a talk on Thursday, March 31, at the Alaska's Barrow Arctic Science Consortium on "new habitable planets in space, and our new searches for the inhabitants."
"One of the greatest developments in the history of astronomy," Drake has written recently, "has been the detection, in only a few years, of more than 200 other planetary systems. Furthermore, our vision of the variety of inhabitable planets has greatly broadened – the prospects for there being many planets inhabited by intelligent creatures have greatly expanded.
"Our best estimate is that there are somewhere between 1,000 and 100 million advanced extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way," he wrote in his book, "Is Anyone Out There?"
"The values for the various factors in the equation have changed over the years, but this answer remains the most probable range," he said.
Posted by Casey Kazan.
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Casey, I think you meant to say MONDAY, March 31.
Posted by: Carson Stuart | March 31, 2008 at 06:31 AM
This leaves open the question of some Italian-named guy's (I forgot his name) paradox. If the low estimate of 1,000 intelligent species is true, then hundreds would have had a sufficient head-start on us to colonize all habitable planets in the galaxy by now, which by conventional wisdom would definitely include our own. This assumes near light-speed travel and a rate of growth of population/resource exploitation roughly similar to our own. It is reasonable to assume that at least one of the hundreds of species with sufficient head start would be at least as expansionist as humanity, so where are they?
The likely answers seem to me to be: a) Interstellar colonization with sufficiently fast ships is impractical and space-capable societies would simply fill up their own systems (including asteroid belts this could entail massive population expansion) awaiting the death of their sun or, b) a hyper nova or some other inter-stellar phenomenon that sterilize portions of the galaxy. These could destroy all life in a multi-star empire often enough for contact between species to be unlikely.
Posted by: Daniel | April 01, 2008 at 07:48 AM
Who says they aren't here already? And don't you think it's quite ad hominem to presume expansionist/imperialist behaviour?
I recommend people to watch this documentary (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5980990221766439646) if they're interested in such matters. And be patient, the production value isn't very grand, but the message is.
Posted by: Mark Rees-Andersen | April 01, 2008 at 08:42 AM
This is a great subject to talk about, debate about & discuss, but until Earth - Bound humanity either 1. ) travels into interstellar space, perhaps in the near future or several centuries from now, or 2. ) Earth is contacted in person by hypothetical intelligent extra - terrestrials, it's just going to be a " waiting game " with LOTS of theories & conjecture, which isn't to say that it's not going to be worth it. Knowing our status in the universe is very important.
Earth - like or potentially Earth -like worlds seem to be appearing on radio - telescopes by the score, it's frustrating to think that we probably won't be able to reach them in the near future, barring the advent of a Star Trek style star drive or a Star Gate or some kind of stable worm - hole which is the staple of several science fiction movies & series, but it may very well be worth the wait.....
Posted by: knoxvilledaniel | April 01, 2008 at 09:02 PM
& to people that believe that we already have extra - terrestrials among us, that's a very entertaining premise, but it's probably going to stay in the realm of science fiction. The idea of an alien " Margaret Mead " observing humans is intriguing, just like Earth being monitored by flying saucers, but it does seem unrealistic & unlikely on a number of levels.
Posted by: knoxvilledaniel | April 01, 2008 at 09:08 PM
thank you. Beatifull Archile !
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