Near-Earth-Object Impact Risk Weighed

It seems a bit of a wonder that movies like Deep Impact and Armageddon made such an impact on humanity, considering the Hollywood source of their storyline. One would imagine that the end of all humankind is not necessarily a story built for mass appeal.

If the past is prelude, there's bound to be a massive collision event from a rogue asteroid at some point in the "near" future unless we successfully intervene.The "Impact Map of the World" above shows most of the 160 impact craters that have been identified since 1950. The bulk of the terrestrial impact craters that were ever formed, however, have been obliterated by eons of geological processes.

Scientists have recently discovered one such asteroid that while low on the damage scale (low being a relative term considering the size of our planet) is currently high on the risk meter. The map shows that major impacts occur roughly once every million years with devastating results.

Study the map at a glance you'll see major impacts in the major population centers of the U.S., Europe, Africa, and Australia. Keep in mind that only 65 million years ago (a wink of the eye in geological time) there was a mass extinction of the dinosaurs that was linked to global effects caused by a massive impact.

2007 VK184 has been picked up by astronomers, including those at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory Near-Earth Objects Program. Currently 90 million kilometers from Earth, 130 meters across and traveling at 70,000 km/h, it could impact the planet sometime in 2048.

What’s interesting though is that it has earned itself a rating of 1 on the Torino scale. The Torino Scale, according to Wikipedia, ‘is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets.’ The scale is a standard 0-10 scale, with 0 being a negligible chance of impact, and 10 being a certain chance of impact with massive global implications upon impact.

NASA believes that 2007 VK184 will eventually be retracted to a warning level of 0, when more information is known. This will take time though, with further observations providing more detailed information on the asteroids trajectory, and Earth’s likelihood of intersecting with said trajectory.

By way of describing what could happen, if the asteroid were to impact Earth, it would be greater than the 1908 asteroid that hit Russia. The Tunguska event of 1908 on July 13, at approximately 7.40am. The Tunguska event however has been surrounded by mystery, considering the year and location – early 1900’s and Russia; ie, the middle of nowhere at a time when nobody knew anything anyway.

Needless to say, any impact by 2007 VK184 would cause substantial damage, leaving a two-kilometer-wide crater and wiping out life for 6,000 square kilometers. Any way you look at it, not a pretty outcome!

Posted by Josh Hill.

Related Galaxy posts:

The NEO Code -Countries Most At Risk Of Getting Hit by an Asteroid Are Identified
The End of the World -A Video (the most terrifying short film ever!)
A Future KT Impact Event -Would the Human Species Survive
Dr Strangelove Two? -Cambridge Astrophysicts gives Earthlings a 50/50 Chance of Survival by End of Century
Largest Impact Crater on Planet Earth
The Apophis Solution -Preventing the Earth's Next Asteroid Impact
Past as Prelude -Asteroids & the Origins of Life

Link:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/space-rock-on-way-but-dont-panic-yet/2007/12/29/1198778767701.html

Comments

[Daniel Appleton]

Isn't there also an asteroid named Apophis ( After the Egyptian serpent god & the character in " Stargate Sg - 1 " ) that's supposed to come uncomfortably near Earth sometime around the mid - 2000's ? A few nuclear war - heads aimed at the right place, & the orbit could be shifted enough to deflect it from Earth, & it might be possible to maneuver it into a stable orbit like a smaller moon, perhaps.

[aurora_waters]

The impact zones on Australia are no where near major population zones they are mostly in the desert near no one. Most of Australia's population is on the coastal strip and in the southern areas.