Ecomigration: Will there be Environment-Driven Population Shifts?
By the year 2100, global warming likely will cause the extinction of numerous species by eliminating the climate zones in which they are able to live. But not only will animals be forced to migrate or die, people will be faced with this same dilemma as well.
With the planet heating up, and global warming predicted to redefine world climates, and some places will be harder hit than others. A new study shows that as climate change intensifies droughts, storms and floods, this will undoubtedly lead to environmental migrations and potential conflicts in the areas migrated to.
In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Ike in the US, large populations have been forced to find refuge elsewhere. Rafael Reuveny from Indiana University says these types of displacing natural phenomenon is only going to grow. His study looks at the role environmental degradation on population migration, or ‘ecomigration’ will play in the future. The study examines the potential impact on areas receiving migrants and the resulting violent conflict that could follow.
The study underlies the fact that people facing environmental disasters are usually forced to leave the affected areas to avoid death. However understandable this might be, the larger the migration and the shorter the period over which it occurs, the harder it is for surrounding populations to absorb the migrants. Reuveny says this will dramatically raise the likelihood of conflict. For example ecomigrants may clash over jobs with locals, as well as over resources and culture. Violent interactions such as theft, seizure of resources and property, murders and insurgencies are likely to rise, he predicts.Reuveny asserts that in order to minimize the impact of these future environmental migrations, developed countries should already be involved in creating preventive strategies both at home and in developing countries to mitigate these likelihoods. The time to come up with game plans is now, he argues, because climate change is expected to degrade the environment considerably during this century.
Reuveny’s analysis of three case studies – the US Dust Bowl in the 1930s; Bangladesh since the 1950s; and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, shows that although climate change can spur large population movements, public policy does have the power to alleviate the pressures of ecomigration. If a country can invest in areas affected by environmental problems, the scope of ecomigration can be reduced and transitions will be smoother, he argues.
According to Reuveny, “minimizing climate change-induced migration and violent conflict in receiving areas requires an engineered economic slowdown in the developed countries, and population stabilization and economic growth in developing countries financed by the developed countries.”
Scientists have concluded that by 2100, climate zones will have likely changed across 12 to 39 percent of the Earth's land surface, based on a model that presumes a continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use and carbon emissions. How this may affect world migration trends, is an interesting topic to ponder. Anyone selling land in Siberia?
Posted by Rebecca Sato
Related Galaxy posts:
The Timeline For 21st Century “Climate Change Events”
Global Warming Creating New Climate Zones
Related Links:
http://www.springer-sbm.com/index.php?id=291&backPID=132&L=0&tx_tnc_news=3883&cHash=5a8ab7ee60
http://nationalacademies.org
http://www.newstarget.com/022013.html
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