Science or Superstition? Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts that 2008 Will Be the Warmest Year in a Century

The Old Farmer's Almanac (established 1792) is North America's oldest continuously published periodical and has over 18.5 million readers. The 2008 edition is hot off the press and predicting that 2008 will be the warmest year in a century. So how do they come up with their predictions?

Its creators say they rely on time-honored, complex mathematical, solar, and meteorology calculations, along with a touch of folklore in their assessments. Traditionally years that end in "8" are said to have weird weather. Examples of the supposed phenomenon would be the unusually frigid winters of 1748 and 1888, tornadoes of 1908, Northwest floods and the Northeast hurricane of 1938.

"At the very least, we expect it to be the warmest year in the last century overall, so people will talk about it for that reason alone," said publisher John Pierce.

This year's edition predicts an unusually mild winter in most of the country. The almanac also predicts below-average snowfall, except for a narrow swath extending from northeast Texas to northern New England. Some of these conclusions are arrived at by using a “secret formula” based on sunspots, along with traditional meteorology. The almanac forecasts a very hot summer in most states, but cool and dry weather in the upper Midwest. It also claims there will be more rain than normal except in Florida and the West.

This year, for the first time ever, the entire issue of the Old Farmer's Almanac is available electronically. Editor in Chief Jud Hale said their decision to incorporate technology should not be surprising.

"If (founder) Robert B. Thomas was alive today, he'd be in the forefront of high tech," Hale said. "He'd want to have the very latest abilities to communicate and do the weather and be involved with science."

While The Old Farmer's Almanac has traditionally looked to founder Robert B. Thomas’ original formula to help with predictions, its forecasting methods have been modernized throughout the years. They now use state-of-the-art technology that employs scientific disciplines such as solar science, climatology, and meteorology. For the most part, weather trends and events are predicted by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.

The Almanac claims that, “Skeptics can laugh, but there have been several miraculous predictions, including the July snow of 1816, which was forecast in a few errant copies; the 1953 Worcester Tornado, foreseen with the phrase, "Heavy squall and that's not all”; and the near-perfect prediction of Hurricane Andrew which hit southern Florida in 1992. Since the beginning of this century, the National Weather Service has maintained accurate records of the nation's weather, and the Almanac's accuracy can be checked—tradition has held it consistently at 80 percent.”

Overall, the Almanac is an unconventional mixture of science and superstition, but even its worst critics admit—it’s at least more accurate than guessing!

Posted by Rebecca Sato

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Related Blog:

http://www.gardenrant.com/my_weblog/2007/04/old_farmers_alm.html

Links:
http://www.almanac.com/about/weatherforecasting.php
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=3586692