The Apophis Solution -Preventing the Earth's Next Asteroid Impact

In a move that will rob movie studios of all credibility… NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center has announced that they have developed a method for diverting asteroids that are on target for a head on collision with earth. The answer: nuclear warheads.

Planned to be launched on the newest generation of launch vehicles – the “Ares V cargo launch vehicle” – the 8.9m (29ft)-long cradle like craft would be capable of carrying six nuclear warheads. The 1.2MT B83 warheads would be delivered via a missile-like interceptor vehicle, and delivering a maximum 1.2 megaton detonation.

Near-Earth Objects (NEO) have long been a dilemma for scientists, especially since the discovery of 99942 Apophis in 2004. Apophis was first believed to be heading directly towards earth, and created a bit of a stir when people realized that it could hit earth in 2029. However since then, and due to several recalculations and lucky happenstances, the asteroid has only a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting earth.

Nevertheless, Apophis will be the test subject for NASA’s asteroid interceptor, as it is the closest thing earth has to a NEO threatening earth. But before the mission can go ahead to deflect the asteroid further, NASA will be sending a discovery probe to ascertain exactly what the composition of the asteroid is made of.

With the information sent back from such a mission, NASA would be able to determine just what method of deflection they would use, given three clear choices. The asteroid interceptor vehicle is not solely reliant on nuclear warheads, but also a ballistic bullet style missile and a solar collector. The latter would be able to focus solar energy on to the surface of the NEO and create thrust and deflection through the evaporation of the surface material.

With the “Hollywood” belief that all one must do is smash up the asteroid like you would a clod of dirt, comes a natural misunderstanding. Deflection has to be the primary option until an explosive detonation can promise to eliminate all but the tiniest of particle debris. Anything larger could enter Earth’s atmosphere and do possible damage.

The mission’s are set to lead up to an encounter between Apophis and NASA’s interceptor sometime before 2029, estimated at around 2020/21. This will allow for deflection up to two years prior, and even larger NEO’s can be deflected up to five years prior.

Posted by Josh Hill

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Comments

[jack butler]

Your friendly neighborhood grammarman strikes again:

1) "head-on"
2) "cradle-like"
3) the missile would be delivered by the said system "and deliver," not "delivering"--parallel grammatical structures are required
4) Try a phrase like "Since then, recalculation has indicated the asteroid has only a 1 in 45,000" chance of striking the Earth. As phrased, the sentence is garbled, and appears to indicate that the recalculation has somehow changed the trajectory of the object, which is not possible
5) the composition of a thing IS what it is made of, so a phrase like "what the composition is made of" is redundant
6) "missions"--do not form plurals by using apostrophes

[Jo Blo]

In the last year or two of his life, Werner von Braun talked to reporters about Hitler's plan for the future. After WW2, his unified nations would then fight 1) against communism, then 2) against terrorism, then 3) against space aliens. During the war on terrorism, space platform-based weapons would be put into place, and then "aliens" would appear and capture the weapons circling above us. The aliens would demand humans begin depopulating the earth or face forced depopulation via use of the weapons. So...NASA (the biggest money pit / secret organization in the U.S.) is now going to implement the space-based weapons phase of this plan? Trace the Bush/Nazi connection. The Nazis didn't lose WW2, they just relocated to the U.S.

[Daniel Appleton]

Wouldn't it be EXTREMELY NICE if we could gently push such an asteroid or comet nucleus into Earth orbit, or close enough to be reached by manned / crewed spacecraft, then use IT as a space base & a source of materials ? We could use the technology that we have at hand now to accomplish it.

Of course, then you'd have legal disputes about governmental ownership ( Think about how Antarctica was / is divided up ), or possibly corporate ownership, who profits from it, etc.

[Marty Ferguson]

Come on, Josh, it has already been done; METEOR (1979). Sean Connery (after his James Bond roles), Karl Malden, Brian Keith, Natalie Wood, Martin Landau...and they got the idea to make the film after the asteroid Icarus passed close to the earth a few years earlier.

[claudiocas]

Breaking large stones (with multiple war heads) like Aphopis can be done after they have passed by us and are on their return path leaving our orbit.

This would surely impede that the smaller pieces have an impact course to earth.

Deflection is purely theory and likely this magics idea of deflection comes from computer simulation-modeling...which has good chance to be wrong.

Aside from statistics (1 in 45,000 impact probability)
which again comes from computer simulation.....(of multibodies gravity pulls on the stone)....Apophis should have a diameter of 300m....and it is NOT easy to deflect.

Tunguska was a much smaller stone...say 70m in diameter ??

It likely had an approach angle such to 'miss the target' ...and for this simple reason it was broken by our ATM.

Good luck to our sons....and to scientists with their feets (and brain) on the ground.

Regards

[SCUBBA]

I caught one with my bare hands last night. LOL

[susrith]

sir, iam susrith from india in vijayavada am also interest in astrology but now iam studying C.A cource in vijayavada.sir am asking about the solution of the earth from asteroid . In news some persons tell end of earth in 2012dec12th,2014dec12th,in discovery channel at 2029year they will tell please ansewer my Q