Researchers Find a “Crystal Ball” that Foretells Innovation

While many stockholders have wished they could look into a crystal ball to anticipate a firm’s performance, researchers at the University of Minnesota say there is a far less mystical way to predict future innovations of a firm.

“The answer lies in the words of the CEO,” said Rajesh Chandy, professor of marketing at the university’s Carlson School of Management.

“By simply counting the number of future oriented sentences in annual reports we can predict future innovation by the firm.”

Could it really be that simple? In the paper “Managing the Future: CEO Attention and Innovation Outcomes,” to be published in the Journal of Marketing, the researchers explain that CEOs who focus their attention on future events, as well as external activities, lead their firms to earlier adoption and invention of new technologies and greater and faster development of innovations. In contrast, more attention to internal operations leads to slower detection, adoption and implementation of new technologies.

Their research found actions don’t necessarily speak louder than words. Apparently it’s the way a CEO talks that sets the tone to inspire, propel and motivate innovation in employees. To investigate their theory, Chandy and his co-authors studied empirical data collected from the online banking industry over eight years to determine innovation outcomes such as speed of detection, speed of development and the breadth of deployment of technology. By counting the number of future oriented words and phrases in letters to shareholders over this time span, they were able to predict the level of innovation by the firm up to five years later.

“The daily pressures from inside the corporation tend to take up the bulk of the CEO's time, overwhelming their attention spans,” explains Chandy. “But because the CEO sets the tone and culture, not thinking forward and outside of the firm has major negative consequences for innovation.”

The researchers advise that CEOs should direct their attention outside their firm rather than toward internal problems, which are better delegated off for others to solve. “The temptation to focus on fires within the firm may cause you to take your eyes off of your job,” said Chandy.

“A CEO who focuses on the big picture, not the nitty-gritty, will influence the process of innovation and future outcomes of the firm more than one who has an internal day to day focus.”

Posted by Rebecca Sato

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Comments

[Billy Kus]

Sounds similar to that WebBot project.