Beyond the Drake Equation -Search for

The SETI project – Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence – has been in existence in one form or another for several decades, dating back to Frank Drake’s first SETI experiment named Project Ozma. SETI is basically the search for intelligence through listening for radio waves of another civilization. For Drake back in the 1960’s, this was no doubt the sign of a technologically prevalent society, and the smartest means to search for life.

However, one can only look at that decision and see it as a mistake. At least, that is what some scientists and others connected to the field of extra-terrestrial search feel, such as George Dvorsky, who serves on the Board of Directors for the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies. Recent insights in such fields as cosmology, astrobiology have changed our perception of the cosmos and the ways in which advanced life might develop.

The Drake Equation does not take into consideration such factors as the age of the Galaxy, when intelligence first emerged, or the presence of physiochemical variables such as the presence of metals necessary for the presence of life and the formation of planets. The equation, Dvorsky emphasizes, assumes "a sort of cosmological uniformity rather than a dynamic and ever changing universe."

The equation asks us to guess the number of Earth-like planets, but it does not ask us to estimate when Earth-like planets -intelligence itself may have been present as long as 2 to 4.5 billion years ago.

The Galaxy’s extreme age and the potential for intelligence, which may have been present as long as 2 to 4.5 billion years ago, to have emerged at disparate points in time leaves an absurdly narrow window for detecting radio signals.

The Drake Equation, Dvorsky believes,  does not tell us about exponential civilizational growth on account of Von Neumann probe disbursement. "It does not tell us where advanced ETI’s may be dwelling or what they’re up to (are they outside the Galaxy? Do they live inside Jupiter Brains? Do they phase shift outside of what we regard as habitable space? ). This is a serious shortcoming because the answers to these questions should help us determine not just where we should be looking, but they can also provide us with insight as to the makeup of advanced intelligence life and our own potential trajectory."

In other words, Dvorsky concludes, post-Singularity machine-based intelligence may represent the most common mode of existence for late-stage civilizations. And that’s who we should be looking for rather than radio transmitting civilizations.

Link

Arificial Intelligence Will Leap Human by 2020

Comments

[Dave K. Welch]

"Machine-based artificial intelligence".... roll that around on your tongue for a bit.

Let me try.... "Machine-based" seems to want to evoke the (human) notion of "robotic"...built or created by a 'first' intelligence.

"Artificial" as used in the phrase should therefore be redundant.

May I pose a thought? If I use my computer to search Wikipedia to find an answer to something, am I artificially enhanced? Of course I am. It is inevitable that we will find a way to artificially enhance what we are now, thru genetic engineering and prosthetics (including computer to mind). There will be many challenges in defining what is human. There will be quite the blur. How will we play sports as we do today when some players break and others no longer have breakable parts? How will we hire new employees when the deciding factor might be the one with three arms is more efficient than the one with two? How will we have babies when we can decide what that baby should be down to the way it will hold a pen?

I digress. I am getting away from the topic of the post. What I am trying to get at though is the idea that the evolution of intelligence will naturally entail artificial enhancement. Where does one draw the line and call something "machine based artifical intelligence"?

Regards

[Scott Maxwell]

Ok.....and the question we all ask is.........if our galaxy is crawling with intelligent life........WHERE ARE THEY ????

Answer: ALL intelligent life at some point in their history destroys itself before the leap to leaving their solar system occurs. Ergo...no advanced star trek life exists.

[Dave K. Welch]

Hi Scott

No, our 'galaxy' is probably not crawling with intelligent life. We are advanced enough that we likely would have found some evidence of this....maybe.
Your summation is a rather depressing point of view though. You seem to have written off mankind. And I disagree. The human species will perpetuate. We will fly the solar winds and populate the stars. In what form we take when that happens is left to the imagination of science fiction writers and poets, but it will happen. We have dreamed it. You don't have to come if you don't want to.

Regards

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